Newbury and Newmarket Saturday Tips Dave Stevos
Newbury and Newmarket Saturday Preview
Primo Bacio ensured we finished York with a 14/1 winner on Friday. Ed Walker’s filly showed an electrifying turn of foot and connections must be gutted they swerved the Guineas. Unfortunately we were out of luck with the rest of our selections. Chichester is one to keep onside though, he was given a strange ride and he stayed on nicely late in the piece. It is Lockinge Day today and ITV will be showing a total of seven races live. Check out Dave Stevos’ Newbury and Newmarket Saturday tips and preview below.
1.50 Newbury – Carnarvon Stakes (Listed)
Conditions will just be on the easy side of good at Newbury. They missed most of the rain they were forecast but there should still be a little bit of juice in the ground. It is unfortunate that only seven go to post for each way players in the opener. However, I still think Mishal Star is worth a small interest. Trained by Tom Ward, this horse finished nearly 4L behind Happy Romance on his return at Chelmsford. However, the Hannon horse had a dream passage through the race whereas Mishal Star endured a nightmarish trip.
She was all dressed up with nowhere to go from 2f out.By the time she found daylight, the race was over. The daughter of Mehmas had strong form as a 2yo, including over 6f here behind Guineas 4th Alcohol Free. This will be her first run at beyond 6f but she has often shaped like it would be within range. Her pedigree suggests that she should just about get the trip and at odds of 8/1, she is worth backing each way.
Newbury and Newmarket Saturday Tips: Mishal Star e/w @ 8/1 NB
2.05 Newmarket – Fairway Stakes (Listed)
Only five will go to post for this 10f Listed heat and John Leeper is fighting it out with Fancy Man for favouritism. The former horse is trained by Ed Dunlop. He looked to possess plenty of potential when winning nicely at Newcastle last time. It was a big improvement on his debut Doncaster run but Fancy Man has much stronger form in the book.
He was beat just 2.75L in a G3 at Chester last time (12f gd/sft) and he was a Listed winner last season. Tasman Bay and Flyin’ High add further intrigue. However, as far as betting goes, I don’t have a strong enough opinion to get involved. One to watch with a view to future engagements. No bet.
Newbury and Newmarket Saturday Tips: No Bet
2.25 Newbury – Aston Park Stakes (Group 3)
Another disappointingly small turnout for this 12f Group 3 with just six lining up in the stalls. Al Aasy comes into the race in the best form. The favourite was a facile winner here last time out on good ground and he has form with a bit of an ease too. A son of Sea The Stars, this horse looks like he is on the up and he could be hard to stop for Haggas and Crowley.
The obvious danger is Logician for Frankie and the Gosdens. The 2019 St Leger winner is a former C&D winner on good to firm. It was soft when he came unstuck behind Euchen Glen at York on his final start last season. The 5yo son of Frankel wouldn’t want any more rain and the more it dries out, the better it will suit him.
Ranch Hand is talented but this big drop in trip raises question marks. Thunderous is a decent horse too and a former course winner. He had no excuses behind Sir Ron Priestly last time though and at the prices, he makes no appeal. This is another race I’ll just watch. No bet.
Newbury and Newmarket Saturday Tips: No Bet
2.40 Newmarket – King Charles II Stakes (Listed)
Although this is another two place race with six runners, I am still going to take a chance on Bellissime at huge odds. Kevin Ryan’s thrice raced daughter of No Nay Never made her debut in the G2 Lowther at York last season. She ran a cracker behind Miss Amulet to finish 6th. Even though she was 8L behind the winner, it was a fine first run. She then went close in an all-weather maiden at Newcastle (6f). The third home that day, Fayathan, went on to win three handicaps and he won the Italian 2000 Guineas on his seasonal return.
Bellissime went on a winter break after that effort and she returned to action over 7f at Chelmsford in March. She did it the hard way from the front and while the form hasn’t really worked out, she showed a very good attitude in the closing stages and she ought to come on plenty for that run. Connections clearly must rate her pretty highly given she made her debut in such a hot race last season and her official rating of just 83 may underestimate her. At odds of 28/1 a small each way interest is advised.
Newbury and Newmarket Saturday Tips: Bellisime e/w @ 28/1
3.00 Newbury – London Gold Cup Handicap (Class 2)
Ten horses will go to post in this year’s London Gold Cup Handicap. At an absolutely monstrous price, Fountain Cross could surprise with a decent run here. This 3yo son of Muharrar was an eyecatcher more than once over shorter distances last season. He ran in some decent contests and I thought he ran a perfectly decent race on his second handicap start at Newmarket last time. He was beat 3L by River Alwen and he is now 5lb better off with his stablemate.
Fountain Cross was rated 100 at one point last term so he clearly has plenty of ability. He had Golden Flame a neck behind him in a Class 2 conditions race at Nottingham last season off level weights. That horse dotted up in a handicap off 85 on his last start.
A little bit of juice in the ground will suit this colt and off a mark of 85, he has more than enough ability to get involved if on a going day. The 5lb swing should enable him to close the gap to River Alwen who is 12/1, while Fountain Cross is chalked up at 66/1. Those odds are too tempting to turn down and with 4 places on offer, Fountain Cross is worth chancing each way.
Newbury and Newmarket Saturday Tips: Fountain Cross e/w @ 66/1 (4 Places)
3.15 Newmarket – 6F Handicap (Class 2)
A field of 16 will line up in the stalls for this competitive looking 6f handicap. The interesting one, if he can rediscover his best 2yo form, is Shark Two One. This son of Adaay disappointed on his return at Doncaster (6f gd/fm). However, the ground was on the quick side for him that day. He was also entitled to need the run.
This fella won a big sales race at the Curragh last season (6f gd) and he showed that was no flash in the pan when giving Spycatcher 4lbs and a 4L beating in a Novice at Redcar (6f sft). He then moved into Listed company in the Doncaster Stakes (6f hvy) where he was far from disgraced behind Lippzaner in 4th. Just Frank was 2L ahead of him in that race off level weights and he re-opposes here off a mark of 98.
Shark Two One races off a rating of 93 and Franny Norton takes the ride. He has a decent record when riding for Richard Fahey with 14 wins and 29 top 4 finishes from just 99 rides (+19.25 to £1 stake). The bit of juice in the ground should really suit Fahey’s charge. On his smart 2yo form, a mark of 93 shouldn’t be beyond him. With 6 places on offer from Skybet, Shark Two One is the each way selection at odds of 33/1.
Newbury and Newmarket Saturday Tips: Shark Two One e/w @ 33/1 (6 places Skybet)
3.35 Newbury – Lockinge Stakes (Group 1)
The feature on ITV this Saturday is the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes. A dozen horses will fight it out for the near £200k first prize and Palace Pier is a short price to bring home the bacon for favourite backers. John and Thady Gosden’s 4yo son of Kingman has won three of his last four, including Group 1s at Ascot (8f gd/sft) and Deauville (8f hvy). His only defeat last season came on Champions Day at Ascot when he simply had an off day. He looked as good as ever when hosing up in a G2 at Sandown on his return. Frankie Dettori’s mount is the one they all have to beat.
Lope Y Fernandez is a talented horse and he ended his losing run in fine style last time out at Leopardstown. He hacked up by 5.5L over a mile on good ground, leaving a decent sort in Saltonstall trailing in his wake. On a line through Pinatubo he hasn’t a huge amount to find with Palace Pier but if the assessor is correct with his official ratings, he has to find at least 8lbs of improvement to trouble the fav.
Lady Could Sneak A Place
Lady Bowthorpe has been a good horse to us in the last two seasons. We were on last time out at Newmarket where she showed an excellent attitude and a neat turn of foot to get the better of Queen Power by a head. That filly advertised that form in fine style when destroying her rivals by 8L in the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York. Given that dominant display, that last effort from Lady Bowthorpe probably deserves to be marked up.
Lady Bowthorpe is officially rated 108 but she does get a 3lb allowance from the boys. On the figures she’ll only need to improve 4 or 5lbs to have a place chance here. That is entirely possible given that she was having her first run of the season at Newmarket. She came up short in the Sun Chariot last season but heavy ground counted against her. Today’s conditions will suit much better and she should be fine dropping back a furlong in trip. At odds of 28/1, Lady Bowthorpe is the each way selection.
