Sandown and Musselburgh Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Sandown and Musselburgh Saturday Tips
Thankfully racing has survived the weather at both Musselburgh and Sandown today. The only casualty has been Wetherby. There is also a superlative card of racing at Leopardstown and you can see our free tips for that meeting here. You can check out Dave Stevos’ Sandown and Musselburgh Saturday tips below…
1.15 Sandown: Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Unfortunately, in what is a recurring theme at Sandown today, it is a small turnout of just 7 for this 15.5f handicap chase. The ground is going to be bottomless at Sandown and one horse that will enjoy the testing conditions is Moonlighter for David Bass and Nick Williams. He didn’t run well on soft ground here last time out when beat 14L behind Ibleo off 147. The handicapper generously dropped him 3lb atter that run and he is now just 2lb higher than when narrowly beat in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter.
That was on good ground but this horse has no worries about heavy. He won his only completed start on this sort of a surface when beating Precious Cargo by a head off a mark of 137. Caribbean Boy is the other one in this race that is sure to enjoy the ground. However, he is short enough in the betting and it remains to be seen if he can live up to his handicap mark of 154. It would be a serious performance if he did win but I prefer the chances of Moonlighter at odds of 7/1.
Sandown and Musselburgh Saturday: Moonlighter e/w @ 7/1 (3 places Betfred)
1.50 Sandown: Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
The first Grade 1 of the day at Sandown is the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase. Again, just 7 go to post and it looks a very competitive renewal. It could come down to who can handle the conditions best. To be honest, it looks like the bookies haven’t taken many chances when pricing up this field. Shan Blue is on a 4 timer and he won his maiden on heavy. However, his last 3 victories came on ground with good in the description. He might get away with it at today’s trip on heavy but at the odds I wouldn’t be lumping on.
Hitman is proven on very soft ground and he is the best treated by the conditions of the race. He is rated 151 and carries 3lb less than the 152 rated Shan Blue and Messire Des Obeaux. The latter has had a great season so far but surely he would prefer better ground than he will encounter today. Sporting John has lost his way after a great start to last season and it is hard to be confident in his chances. With 3 places on offer it might be worth having a small each way bet on Paint The Dream.
Dream Could Go Well
He has yet to run on heavy but he does have some solid form on soft. He was beat just a couple of lengths by Midnight Shadow in a G2 Novice last season at Cheltenham (20.5f sft). After a trio of below par efforts this term, he bounced back with a superb win in a handicap chase at Newbury last time out. Fergal O’Brien’s charge won by over 7L off 137 and he is now rated 147. He wouldn’t need to improve much more to figure at the business end in this contest. With 3 places on offer from Paddy Power, he is worth backing e/w at 20/1.
Sandown and Musselburgh Saturday: Paint The Dream e/w @ 20/1 (3 Places P Power)
2.05 Musselburgh: Scottish County Hurdle (Class 2)
A field of 10 horses will go to post in this Class 2 handicap. In the hope that the return to this track sparks a return to form I think Never Do Nothing could outrun his odds for Tom Gibney. This Irish raider is making his handicap debut off a mark of 134. He has been very highly tried over timber since winning impressively over C&D on his hurdling debut for John McConnell (gd/sft). Things haven’t gone to plan since. However, three of his last four starts came in Grade 1 and Grade 2 company.
Tom Gibney doesn’t have many UK runners and the fact he sends this horse over during the pandemic would suggest it has been a long term target. Never Do Nothing is still only a 5yo so he could have plenty more improvement in him and with Kevin Brogan’s claim he is effectively racing off just 129. He wasn’t far behind a few horses with much higher ratings when he ran in the Triumph back in March and with 4 places on offer with Skybet, Never Do Nothing is worth chancing e/w at 16/1.
Sandown and Musselburgh Saturday: Never Do Nothing e/w @ 16/1 (4 Places Skybet)
2.20 Sandown: Cotswold Chase (Grade 2)
The Grade 2 Cotswold Chase is run over a trip of 3 miles and 6 horses will go to post. A couple of these have their eyes on Cheltenham in March, including Santini and Bristol De Mai. Santini would most definitely prefer better ground but Bristol De Mai is a real mudlark. However, I think it may be worth taking a chance on Saint Calvados. This horse ran a massive race last time out in the King George, especially when you consider how exuberantly he raced.
He tanked through the race and few travelled better as they turned for home. However, his early keenness told in the closing stages and he faded to finish 4th. He will appreciate this type of ground (3/4 on heavy) and while some might say he didn’t stay last time, I think it was the fact that he pulled so hard in the early stages rather than a lack of stamina that beat him. He gets a nice bit of weight from some of his more fancied rivals and he looks well worth another crack at 3 miles. At odds of 13/2 a small win bet on Saint Calvados is advised.
Sandown and Musselburgh Saturday: Saint Calvados win @ 13/2
2.55 Sandown: Handicap Chase (Class 3)
A field of 10 will line up behind the tape in this 20f handicap chase. At a decent each way price it might be worth taking a chance on Clan Legend. Trained by Nick Alexander, this 11yo son of Midnight Legend scored last time out at Aintree (20f sft). That win came off a rating of 127 and he was handed an 8lb hike for it. That means he is in off a career high rating of 135 today but that may not be beyond him, especially on this sort of a surface.
He is a 10 time winner during his career and over half of those wins came on heavy. He has some solid placed form in the book too. Almost a year ago to the day he chased home Nuts Well (then rated 146) at Wetherby off a mark of 129. He was 4L behind the winner but that horse is now rated 159 so in hindsight it was a superb run. At odds of 14/1, he is the each way pick.
Sandown and Musselburgh Saturday: Clan Legend e/w @ 14/1 (4 Places Skybet)
3.30 Sandown: Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Only 7 horses have been declared for this 3 mile handicap chase. It will be an attritional affair on this ground and Ask Me Early is the market leader. He has won his last two and the 7yo son of Ask is in off a rating of 135 today. That is 7lb higher than he was for his last win at Chepstow (23.5f sft) and he shaped as though there was a good bit more to come on that occasion.
Kiltealy Bridge is next best in the betting and he has a very different profile. He has been running in classy company since winning at Kelso last January (22f hvy) and he makes his handicap debut off 140. If he gets the trip he must have a solid chance. One that could go well at bigger odds is Dominateur. He has disappointed so far this season but this sort of test should suit him.
This 8yo won two in a row at Chepstow over 23.5f on soft and heavy ground in December 2019. He then found Grade 2 company too hot and on his final start of last season, he could never land a blow over 4 miles at Uttoxeter. The ground was too lively for him on his return to action at this track and 30f was probably too far last time at Cheltenham. This will be his first start on heavy over 3 miles since his last win. If the first time blinkers sharpen up his jumping he could run a big race for each way players at odds of 10/1.
Sandown and Musselburgh Saturday: Dominateur e/w @ 10/1
3.45 Musselburgh: Edinburgh National Handicap Chase (Class 2)
The closing live race of the day on ITV4 is the Edinburgh National. This 33f contest has attracted a field of 12 stayers and it will be a gruelling affair. The one I’ll be taking a chance on off a mark of just 128 is Fortified Bay. This 9yo son of Makfi was last sighted chasing Perfect Candidate home at Haydock (28f hvy). He was beat almost 45L into 2nd by Fergal O’Brien’s horse so it wasn’t exactly a great run. However, the return to slightly better ground at Musselburgh should aid his cause.
He has run poorly his last three starts on heavy. However, his last two runs on soft both resulted in victory. Jennie Candlish’s charge beat Hill Sixteen (then rated 121) by 2L off 125 at Newcastle (23.5f sft). That horse is now rated 137. Candlish has freshened Fortified Bay up since that last outing at Haydock and I think this stamina test could really suit. With 5 places on offer from Skybet, Fortified Bay is the e/w NAP of the day at 22/1.
