Saturday live ITV Tips and Preview by Dave Stevos

by | Jul 10, 2020

Saturday Live ITV Tips From Newmarket and Ascot

We never got going at all on Friday at Newmarket. Candelisa looked like he might play a part 3f out but he faded badly. Dubai Horizon didn’t go on the ground and finished out with the washing. Most disappointing of all was Grand Rock. He never got involved and it was a dismal effort. It was just one of those days. Hopefully, we can get back on track today. Check out Dave Stevos’ Saturday live ITV tips from Newmarket and Ascot below…

Saturday Live ITV Tips: Newmarket 1.50pm – Bet365 Mile Handicap (Class 2)

The ground is likely to remain soft for this 11 runner 8f handicap. There is no rain forecast but it won’t be that windy or warm so it is unlikely to dry out too much. The one I am interested in at a nice price here is Into Faith for David Menuisier and Pierre-Charles Boudot. This son of Intello has had just four starts so far and his sole win came at 8f on very soft ground at Longchamp.

Boudot rode him for the first time that day and he got a great tune out of him. His maiden run at Sandown on good to firm has worked out very well too. This lad’s comeback run at Newbury looked badly needed and it was probably a lack of sharpness rather than his mark that beat him. The return to easier ground here and the booking of Boudot are both positives and a big run could be on the cards. At odds of 18/1 Into Faith is the each way selection.

Saturday Live ITV Tips: Into Faith E/W @ 18/1

ITV Live Selections: Ascot 2.05pm – Betfred Fillies’ Handicap (Class 3)

Unlike at Newmarket the ground at Ascot is good. Back on a better surface I am giving one more chance to Al Rasmah. Trained by Richard Fahey, we backed this filly in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot. She was ridden a lot more forward than she normally is that day and she paid the price for those exertions late on. She has had only four career starts so far and her sole win came on good ground at Chester on debut (6f).

I thought she ran a really promising race at Haydock on her reappearance off 85. Held up off the pace Al Rasmah finished off her race very nicely and was only 2L behind the winner. On the face of it that form doesn’t look overly strong but it wasn’t a bad effort for her first run back. Soft ground counted against her at Royal Ascot and back on this type of ground Al Rasmah is worth chancing each way.

Saturday Live ITV Tips Al Rasmah E/W @ 11/1 (4 Places)

Saturday Live ITV Tips: Newmarket 2.25pm – Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2)

Another fillies’ handicap for 3yos, this time over 7f, and 10 will line up in the stalls. This is a very tough race to weigh up as many of these are unproven on soft. The one I am going to take a chance on at a decent each way price is Alabama Whitman. Trained by Richard Spencer, James Doyle takes the ride and looks an interesting booking.

She produced a career best on good to soft in the Albany at Royal Ascot last season. The daughter of Ivawood wasn’t disgraced in a 7f G3 behind Tropbeau on even softer ground in France subsequently. Her sole win came on good to firm so clearly she is ground versatile. Her return and handicap debut at Ascot behind Onassis was likely needed and she should strip fitter now. She is now 3lb lower and off her new mark she is worth backing each way at odds of 12/1.  

Saturday Live ITV Tips: Alabama Whitman E/W @ 12/1 (4 Places Skybet)

ITV Live Selections: Newmarket 3.00pm – Superlative Stakes (Group 2)

A 7f Group 2 for 2yos only, a field of 10 promising young colts will go to post. Soft ground form is in short supply and those that are proven on it are at the top of the market. Hudson River has an unbelievable pedigree, by Galileo and out of crack sprinter Mecca’s Angel. He made all on yielding ground at the Curragh last time (7f) and given his breeding he could be anything. It will be fascinating to see how he gets on.

At a price, Ventura Tormenta could go well for Richard Hannon and Sean Levey. This colt is clearly well thought of. He made his debut in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes (5f gd/sft) at Ascot and he ran respectably in 6th. Next time out he scored on good to firm at Yarmouth in a much weaker race.

He looked like she benefitted massively from the experience of his debut, making all for a comfortable win. By Acclamation, there is every chance he will be effective on today’s ground and his trainer has won 4 of the last 10 renewals of this. At odds of 16/1 Ventura Tormenta is worth backing each way.

Saturday Live ITV Tips: Ventura Tormenta E/W @ 16/1

Saturday Live ITV Tips: Ascot 3.15pm – Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2)

We were on Mohaather at Royal Ascot in the Queen Anne and he got no run whatsoever. He was travelling stronger than anything else but from the 3f pole onwards he was all dressed up with nowhere to go. His 3yo form looks solid (two G3 wins) and he looks well capable of mixing it at this higher level. His price makes no appeal though and one that could go well at bigger odds is Urban Icon.

Okay, this represents a big step up in class compared to his 2nd in a Listed heat at Windsor last time. However, he had Accidental Agent a length behind and he was conceding 3lb to that horse. Urban Icon ran a blinder here last season in the G3 Jersey Stakes (7f gd) when beat just under 3L into 4th.He was a neck ahead of Duke Of Hazzard in that contest yet he is 4 times the price of that rival. A few of these have questions to answer after their last outings and at 33/1 Urban Icon has enough strong form in the book to warrant an each way interest.

Saturday Live ITV Tips: Urban Icon e/w @ 33/1

ITV Live Selections: Newmarket 3.35pm – July Cup Stakes (Group 1)

The biggest race of the day on Saturday is the Group 1 July Stakes. 13 speedy sprinters will go to post and quite a few of them won’t be happy on soft ground. One that will definitely handle conditions at a big price is Equilateral. This gelded son of Equiano ran a massive race behind Battaash in the 5f King’s Stand. He finished off his race very well and this step back up to 6f is going to suit. He won his maiden over the distance (gd/fm) and he handles an ease too.

Equilateral will again have the assistance of James Doyle in the saddle and his form figures on this horse read 122. Regular readers will know how highly I rate Liberty Beach and though she disappointed last time, the fact Equilateral was able to beat her when giving her 9lbs impressed me. With odds of 25/1 on offer and 4 places available, Equilateral is the each way NAP of the day.

Saturday Live ITV Tips: Equilateral e/w @ 25/1 NAP (4 places)

Saturday Live ITV Tips: Ascot 3.50pm – Betfred Heritage Handicap (Class 2)

We were on Venturous last time out at Newcastle when he found daylight far too late. Hollie Doyle got trapped behind a wall of horses and Caspian Prince got first run. However, his two previous Ascot runs were poor and he is 11lb above his last winning turf mark. One at a huge price who is handicapped to go well is Saaheq for Amanda Perrett and Hayley Turner.

This son of Invincible Spirit returned to action off 90 and has had two runs over 6f. All his winning has been over today’s trip of 5f and this is his first try at the distance this season. The handicapper has dropped him to 87, just 2lb higher than his last winning turf mark (5f gd).

He was also a close 5th off that mark on soft ground on his only Ascot start late last year for Mick Appleby (5f) and after that run, it would be no surprise if his shrewd new trainer earmarked this race for him. A strongly run race will suit this strong traveller and 3 of the last 6 winners have been drawn 6 or lower. If he gets the gaps at the right times, Saaheq could outrun his odds of 40/1.

Saturday Live ITV Tips: Saaheq E/W @ 40/1 (5 Places)

Saturday Live ITV Tips: Newmarket 4.10pm – Bunbury Cup Handicap (Class 2)

Keyser Soze is a horse I have followed for a long time and I am convinced he has a race like this in him. Given his ability it is hard to believe he has only one win on turf and that was in a maiden at Thirsk (7f gd/fm). He has won four on the all weather though, his last win coming back in Feb 2019 off 101 at Newcastle (7f). His turf mark is 10lb lower than his all-weather rating and Cieren Fallon also claims 3lb.

Keyser Soze was never sighted on his return to action off 96 at Royal Ascot. Slowly away and poorly drawn, he didn’t have a hard race at all. One of his best turf runs came on good to soft ground, a narrow 0.5L defeat in a valuable contest at Newbury (8f) off 93. This will be his first start over this C&D but on paper it should suit him. He is best when dropped out off a strong pace and young Fallon will need to ride him with balls of steel. Granted luck in running, Keyser Soze is well capable of producing a big run here at odds of 22/1.

Saturday Live ITV Tips: Keyser Soze e/w @ 22/1 NB (5 Places)

 

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