Saturday Longchamp Arc Meeting Tips – DS
Saturday Longchamp Arc Meeting Tips
You can check out today’s UK tips for Redcar, Newmarket and Ascot here. We also have some top class action in France today. The Arc is the big race on Sunday, check out our ante-post tip and ‘stats that matter’ previews. You can get our Saturday Longchamp Arc Meeting selections below.
1.33 – Prix de Royallieu (Group 1)
The whining continues about former Melbourne Cup winner Verry Elleegant not getting a run in the Arc. Some were expecting special treatment for the Aussie raider but do you think Australian authorities would bend the rules to accommodate an Irish, UK or French horse to get them into the Melbourne Cup? Not a chance. I don’t think she had much hope over 12f anyway and this race should give her a better chance of winning. However, she’s gone four runs without a victory and she is worth taking on again.
The ground will be pretty testing at Longchamp and that is a total unknown for Emily Dickinson. She has raced on softer than good once (good to soft) and while it was a good effort in the Leger, very soft or heavy ground would be a worry for the daughter of Galileo.
Ryan Moore prefers her to Perotan, the mount of Yutaka Take. This horse has already won on soft and she flew home in a Leopardstown G3 over 12f last time. Her sole previous 14f run resulted in victory and I’m surprised Moore picked her stablemate. I think 8/1 looks a very generous price about Perotan and she should go close.
Dark Horse
At huge odds, the rag Control Tower looks a fascinating contender. By Youmzain, this horse is at her best when the mud is flying. This season, she has had four starts and there has been good in the description for all of them. She was running a blinder over this C&D on her return when she was badly hampered. She then ran two lovely races on ground quicker than ideal at Chantilly (15f gd) and Clairefontaine (12f gd/sft). The ground was too fast last time at Deauville but now, she gets her optimal conditions.
It is almost exactly a year since she got very soft ground at Saint Cloud (14f v sft). She hacked up in that G3 by 6L. She then got to within 3L of Arc hopefuls Alpinista and Mendocino in a Munich G1. Her form figures on very soft to heavy read 1131261 and that German effort showed she could mix it at the highest level. This race doesn’t look as strong so at 28/1, Control Tower is the each way selection.
Saturday Longchamp Arc Meeting Tips: Control Tower e/w @ 28/1 NB
3.25 – Prix Du Cadran (Group 1)
The star stayer of this season, Kyprios, is odds on to make it six wins in a row. He is a quality horse and if he can reproduce his best on this ground, he’ll be hard to beat. However, you cannot ignore the fact that Galileo’s progeny are more than twice as likely to win on faster ground than on bad ground. If this lad is ever going to get beat, today could be the day.
Quickthorn wants better ground than this and the biggest UK threat could come from Tashkan. He’s a grand horse and he will love this ground. I’d imagine his whole season has been geared towards this contest and if you fancy him at 15/2, I definitely wouldn’t put you off. He stays all day.
Princess To Bounce Back
Another horse who is going to be delighted with the muck is Princess Zoe. She was well beaten over 14f on yielding at the Curragh last time but this test will be more up her street. Last season she ran really well in it behind Trueshan (beat 7.75L) and the daughter of Jukebox Jury won it the year before.
She has already beaten Quickthorn on his favoured ground over 16f this term and on this surface, I think she’ll uphold that form. Her form figures on soft/heavy read 11451121 and I’m sure Tony Mullins has had this race in mind since the start of the season. 18/1 looks far too big and at those odds, Princess Zoe looks well worth chancing e/w.
Saturday Longchamp Arc Meeting Tips: Princess Zoe e/w @ 18/1 NAP
4.00 – Prix Dollar (Group 2)
Anmaat is the 9/4 fav here but the ground has to be a massive worry. Only 1 of Awtaad’s progeny have won on heavy ground so far and he has a far better strike rate (winner to runners) on good or quicker. If he handles it he has obvious claims but it is a big if. A good few of these have it to probe on this ground. Addeybb will love it and of those near the head of the market, he makes most appeal at 8/1.
West Wind Blows, Grocer Jack, Junko and Wally would all likely prefer quicker conditions. One that could go well at huge odds is Hurricane Dream. He’s been in great form, going close on his last three starts. He has won on bad ground before and his form figures on soft/heavy read 4161611.
He isn’t consistent but when he is in the mood, he is a very good horse. His close 2nd in a C&D G3 back in June was a fine run and a repeat of that might be enough for place money. At odds of 33/1, hopefully Hurricane Dream is blowing hot and produces what he is capable of.
