Saturday Newmarket and Ascot Preview and Tips

It was a frustrating afternoon for us at the Curragh on Sunday. Melburnian never travelled with any purpose and it was a poor run. Mi Esperanza hit the front 2f out and at one point it looked like another Big Gossey could be on the cards. She just ran out of puff in the last 100 yards though. It is a huge weekend on the racing front with Group 1 action in the UK and France. You can check out our Arc preview here and you can see our Saturday Newmarket and Ascot preview below.

1.45 Newmarket – Premier Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2)

A super start to the day’s action on ITV with this quality handicap for the fillies. The ground at Newmarket will likely be on the softer side of good. With conditions to suit, it might be worth taking a punt on Alpine Mistral at massive odds. This 4yo daughter of Gale Force Ten made hay in handicaps last season. She was beat off 54 on her handicap debut and was dropped to a mark of just 50. The handicapper lived to regret that assessment as she went on to win her next four starts on the bounce off 50, 56, 67 and 73.

It looked like she was in his grips when beat off 78 and 80 the next twice. However, she won on her final start of the season at Nottingham off 80 and she returned to action this season off 89. Her first three runs of 2021 were below par and she had wind surgery. She returned to action a fortnight ago after 111 days off. It was a solid effort at Sandown (8f sft) behind Spirit Of The Bay when 3rd, beat 2.5L off 84. She now returns to 10f, the distance three of her last four wins have come at.

Ground To Suit

This filly has won on good to firm, good, soft and on the all weather. However, her best  runs have come on easy ground. Shaun Keightley has mostly campaigned her at a lower level than this. But, given her exploits last season, you would think she is capable of running well in a race of this nature. Especially off just 3lbs higher than her last winning mark. Quite a few of those at the head of the market are unproven on easy ground. However, this filly will relish it. If Alpine Mistral builds on her last run, she could sneak into the frame at 33/1.

Saturday Newmarket and Ascot Tip: Alpine Mistral e/w @ 33/1 (4 Places)

2.05 Ascot – Rous Stakes (Listed)

Irish raider Strong Johnson is a fascinating contender in this Listed heat. Dylan Hogan’s mount is best known as a hardy handicapper in Ireland. However, his form has ascended to a new level this season. Soft ground suits him well and there is lots of rain forecast. His last outing on soft came over 5f at Tipperary and he produced one of his best ever runs. He beat the 92 rated Verhoyen and 102 rated Indigo Balance (conceding 5lbs).

He proved that was no fluke next time out at the Curragh when winning a 5f handicap off 94. Homer Scott’s charge wasn’t so good in a Listed contest next time. However, he ran a very good race when beat just over 4L in the G1 Flying Five at the Curragh (5f gd). He was a neck behind Gustavus Weston (rated 115). He had the likes of Measure Of Magic (105), Winter Power (117) and Mooniesta (112) well behind.

Last week the son of Le Cadre Noir showed he was still in top form in the Joe McGrath. He finished a close 2nd off 99 and he was conceding well over a stone to the winner and a stone to the 3rd. His form figures on ground softer than good read 2120230112. So, connections will be delighted to see there is plenty of rain about. Dakota Gold, on a hat-trick in this race, will also enjoy the conditions. However, he is short enough and at odds of 16/1, Strong Johnson is the e/w selection.

Saturday Newmarket and Ascot Tip: Strong Johnson e/w @ 16/1

2.20 Newmarket – October Auction Stakes (Class 2)

I’m not sure why I bother with these big sales races. More often than not the market leaders dominate but you have to live in hope that some day we’ll have an outsider that runs well. A maximum field of 30 will go to post for this 6f contest and the winner takes home £81k. Fearby has the best form by a country mile. Even though  he has to give weight away, he looks a rock solid proposition. He has run blinders in Group 2 company the last twice and he handles cut in the ground. His rating of 104 puts him head and shoulders above the rest of these and he is going to be hard to beat at around 4/1.

In receipt of over a stone from the favourite, maybe Stubble Field can run into the money. She hails from the Simon Pearce stable, not exactly a renowned producer of 2yo winners. That probably explains why she was sent off at 80/1 on her debut. However, she proved those odds all wrong with a  super effort at Ascot. She went down by just a neck to Khanjar in that contest (6f gd). The 4th and 5th (4L back) have both won maidens since.

The winner was having his third start and he was handed a rating of 85 for that run. He got first run on the Pearce filly and you would fancy her to turn the form around if they met again. Easy ground is an unknown but Adaay’s progeny usually act on it. This filly’s half sister is also a heavy ground winner. Her lack of experience in comparison to some of her rivals is a worry. However, she has plenty of ability and off a feather weight, she is worth chancing e/w at 14/1.

Saturday Newmarket and Ascot Tip: Stubble Field e/w @ 14/1 (5 Places)

2.40 Ascot – Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3)

After his excellent effort in a Listed heat at Chester last time, it could be worth taking a chance on Wells Farhh Go in this 12F Group 3. It seems like a long time ago that this 6yo son of Farrh was fancied for the St Leger. Injury cruelly robbed him of his chance to run in that G1 in 2018. Another niggle picked up in the Ebor in 2019 kept him off the track for the entire 2020 season. It looked like he wasn’t the same horse when he returned at York but he came on for that outing and it was much better three weeks ago at Chester (12f gd/sft).

You would imagine he will improve again for that effort and he was only 0.5L behind the 110 rated Alounak (8/1 here) and 2L ahead of the 110 rated Alignak (11/1). It was his best effort since his last win at Newmarket back in 2019 and it proved that plenty of ability still remains.

His trainer Tim Easterby has had a superb season and he has been firing winners in left, right and centre in the last two weeks (15 total). This horse’s two 2yo wins came on good to soft so a bit of cut should be fine. He flopped on his last start on soft, but that was because he wasn’t right. He shouldn’t face a lot of competition for the lead and at odds of 25/1, a bold bid could be on the cards.

Saturday Newmarket and Ascot Tip: Wells Farhh Go e/w @ 25/1

2.55 Newmarket – Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1)

Regular readers of this blog will know how highly I rate Primo Bacio. We were on when she hacked up in a Listed heat at York in May and that display convinced me she was a G1 winner in waiting. Ed Walker’s daughter of Awtaad was very unlucky on her next start at Newmarket (8f gd/fm) when she was denied a clear run at a vital time. She finished very well and she was only 1.5L behind Snow Lantern, Mother Earth, Alcohol Free and Lady Bowthorpe.

The first two re-oppose today and they head the betting. Snow Lantern is edging favouritism at 5/2 and Mother Earth is 7/2. Both fillies are proven on soft ground and in my opinion, the conditions won’t suit Primo Bacio. She is a filly with a scorching turn of foot when she is at her best and she could struggle to show it on rain softened ground.

The dark horse here is Tahlie for Roger Varian and Jack Mitchell. This daughter of Rio De La Plata is having her first run for Varian today. Formerly trained in France, she racked up four wins in a row (including Listed/G2) before she finished behind a few of today’s rivals in the Prix Rothschild. An 8th placed finish suggests she was well beaten, but she didn’t get the best of trips. She was only 3.25L behind Mother Earth and 1.25L behind Primo Bacio but with  a clearer run she would have been a lot closer. Tahlie enjoys a bit of cut, she has won at the distance and at odds of 20/1, she is worth backing each way.

Saturday Newmarket and Ascot Tip: Tahlie e/w @ 20/1 (4 Places)

3.15 Ascot – Bengough Stakes (Group 3)

A refreshingly decent field of 14 will battle it out in this 6f Group 3. The one I like at a big price on ground that will suit is Ainsdale for Burke and Lee. We backed this horse earlier this season at Haydock. He was beat a neck by Liberty Beach in that G2 (5f hvy) when he shaped as though 6f would suit better. He did step up to 6f on his next start at Newcastle and while he only finished 6th, he was only 2.75L behind the winner Chil Chil and he finished ahead of some decent horses, including Brando.

5f was too sharp for him in another G3 at Sandown on his penultimate start. However, on his first run over 6f on easy ground since his fine Haydock effort, he ran a lovely race in a Baden Baden G3. Andre De Vries rode and unfortunately, Ainsdale got trapped on the inner just as the race was taking shape. When he got into the clear he stayed on very well for 4th but the front two had flown. The good to soft ground was probably lively enough for him too and he’ll be hoping the heavens open at Ascot.

The weather forecast suggests that he’ll get his optimum conditions. His form figures on soft/heavy read 112141 and his sole run at 6f on properly soft ground resulted in victory (beat Ropey Guest by nearly 2L). I think this horse is capable of running to 110+ on testing ground and if he does that, he won’t be far off a place in this race. At odds of 33/1, Ainsdale is the each way NAP of the day in an open contest.

Saturday Newmarket and Ascot Tip: Ainsdale e/w @ 33/1 nap (4 Places)

3.35 Redcar – 2yo Trophy (Listed)

We are also treated to a Listed heat for the Juveniles from Redcar this afternoon. They have missed most of the rain and the ground should be better than it is at Ascot and Newmarket. Richard Fahey has won this for two of the last four years and he relies on Vintage Clarets. The 2yo son of Ardad will like the good ground and he has some solid form in the book. However, he has come up short in three previous runs at pattern level and he has become expensive to follow.

The same could be said for Chipotle. He has been highly tried since his Listed Royal Ascot win and he has come up short. The Brocklesby winner has had a pretty busy campaign but it would be no surprise were he to bounce back to form now back down in class. However, I am going to go with potential rather than proven form and Atomise showed plenty of the former when running a lovely race on debut at Yarmouth (6f gd).

The daughter of Ardad was given an educational ride by Louis Steward and she was only 1.75L behind Wajd at the finish. She was in amongst horses and didn’t really get a clear run but she showed lots of ability and I can see her improving a chunk for that experience. Her brother Harry The Hurricane was a useful performer and he was by Kodiac, who sired Ardad. He liked decent ground and once the ground is good, Atomise could surprise with a big run at 20/1 for her in form trainer Charlie Fellowes.

Saturday Redcar Tip: Atomise e/w @ 20/1 (4 Places)

3.50 Ascot – Challenge Cup Handicap (Class 2)

This 7F Heritage Handicap closes the show on ITV4 on Saturday. A maximum field of 18 are due to line up in the stalls and it is wide open. River Nymph currently heads the market for Kirby and Cox. This horse loves to get his toe in and his last start on soft resulted in a big handicap win at Ascot off 100. He is 4lbs higher now but with conditions to suit he should run a big race. One at a bigger price who will also enjoy the ground is Tomfre.

Trained by Ralph Beckett, this 4yo son of Cable bay likes it when the mud is flying. He has disappointed the last twice on good to soft/good to firm. However, he ran very well over 7f on soft at York three runs back. Beckett’s charge finished just 1.75L behind Volatile Analyst off 105 and he is in off 2lbs lower this afternoon. That is just 2lbs higher than he was when winning at Doncaster on his final run of last season (7f sft).

On his seasonal return he ran in a Listed race at Haydock (7f hvy) and he found just Qaysar too good. 1.75L separated the pair and Tomfre is 1lb better off today. His two previous Ascot runs were poor but both came on quick ground. This is the first time he has had his favoured conditions at the track and he should improve for his last outing which came after a three month break. Beckett has likely trained him to peak for this time of the season and at odds of 16/1 he is the each way selection.

 

Saturday Newmarket and Ascot Tip: Tomfre e/w @ 16/1 NB (5 Places)