Saturday Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting Tips – DS
Saturday Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting Tips
No joy today. All three horses ran respectably, they just weren’t good enough on the day. Let’s hope we can finally get back on track tomorrow. Our Saturday Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting tips are below.
1.50 – Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2)
We start off this Saturday with this mile Group 2 for the juveniles. It looks a quality contest and a few of them have already shown form in stakes company. We have already backed Son this season at Goodwood (7f gd/sft) and while he only finished fifth, he was beat less than 2.25L for the win having endured a less than clear passage. Iberian was 1.25l ahead of him and he won a G2 next time out.
Next time Pat Dobbs decided to eliminate the possibility of encountering traffic problems by trying to make all in a Listed heat at Salisbury (8f gd). He ran well again to pick up some black type in third but I’m not sure those aggressive tactics really suited him.
By the sire of the moment Too Darn Hot, hopefully connections ride him more patiently today. I think his mark of 98 underestimates him on his Goodwood form and with Capulet and Ghostwriter likely to go forward, Pat Dobbs should be able to slot in behind them. His pedigree suggests that this sort of trip/ground should be ideal for him and if he repeats his Goodwood run, a place is not out of the question for Son at 40/1.
Saturday Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting Tips: Son e/w @ 40/1
2.25 – Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1)
Aidan O’Brien has won four of the last seven renewals of the Cheveley Park. Three of them were priced up at 25s, 6s and 14s so it would be dangerous to discount either of his two runners here. However, She’s Quality is worth giving another chance to after the rain scuppered her chances in the Moyglare at the Curragh earlier this month.
Jack Davison’s daughter of Acclamation previously hosed up in a decent maiden at Newbury (6f gd). On her previous start she chased home Navassa Island at the Curragh (6f gd) and that horse subsequently placed in an Ayr G3 last week. The Twomey horse back in third won a G3 next time out so the form is strong.
Last time out She’s Quality actually shaped much better than the result. She travelled into the race well but she just couldn’t sustain her effort on the easy ground. On that evidence a fast run race over 6f should suit her and she has less than 2L to find with Porta Fortuna on that form. Donnacha O’Brien’s charge is 10/1, Jack Davison’s filly is nearly 3x that price at 28s.
Another cause for optimism is Davison’s record with his UK raiders. He’s had 3 winners and four top 4 finishes from just 14 runners, including a G3 with Thunderbear at Newbury last week. Ronnie Whelan keeps the faith so at odds of 28/1, back She’s Quality e/w.
Saturday Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting Tips: She’s Quality e/w @ 28/1 (4 places) NAP
3.00 – Middle Park Stakes (Group 1)
Jasour came unstuck last time in France but the ground was all wrong. As we saw when we backed him at 25s at Newmarket in July, this horse is electric when the ground is quick. He landed that G2 by 2L on the July Course, his second win from two starts on good to firm. He’s too short for the blog today at around 7/1 but I can see him running a massive race returned to quicker ground.
Of those at double figure odds, Elite Status appeals most. Like Jasour, he failed to fire behind Vandeek in France last time on very soft. He did win at Deauville previously on soft but that ‘soft’ in France is closer to good to soft on these shores. As a general rule, don’t trust French ground descriptions on the Racing Post site, Turftrax have the most accurate descriptions.
This son of Havana Grey ran a huge race behind Valiant Force at Royal Ascot (5f gd/fm). He previously hacked up in a Listed contest at Sandown (5f gd) so clearly, he enjoys decent ground. Vandeek, on the other hand, is unraced on fast ground so he has it all to prove today. In the hope that the ground sparks a revival, Elite Status is the e/w selection at odds of 20/1.
Saturday Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting Tips: Elite Status e/w @ 20/1
3.40 – Cambridgeshire Handicap (heritage)
The big one. Just the 35 will line up in the stalls and hopefully we can find another Majestic Dawn. The last seven renewals have been won by horses drawn 21 or higher.
With most bookies paying six places, I looked back at those last seven races and 26 of the 42 top six finishers were drawn 19 or higher. Just five horses in seven years have managed to finish in the first six from single figure draws. It is pretty safe to say that a high draw is a big positive.
Massive Odds
With that in mind, I’m going to take a chance on one at massive odds. Drawn in stall 27, Carolus Magnus could surprise with a big run for Mick and David Easterby. Formerly trained by Andrew Balding, this son of Holy Roman Emperor ran in this race last season off 90. Drawn low in stall 8, he shaped much better than his finishing position/distance beaten suggests.
Good to soft ground was no good for him next time at York and he headed to the sales after that run. The Easterbys picked him up for 20k and he’s had four runs for them since joining. At York he bombed out on easy ground but he showed clear signs of life on his next start at Chelmsford over 10f.
Slow Starts
Slow away, he raced in rear under Shane Gray. As they turned in, he was still travelling well and while he only finished 9th, with a clearer run and a more vigorous ride he could have finished much closer than the 4L he was behind the winner.
At Newcastle next time he was beat just 2L into 5th after his jockey was very slow to remove the blindfold at the start. He again found trouble in running but he ran through the line well over the 10f trip so today’s distance of 9f should be well within his compass.
Last time at Wolves he was dropped out and given a very tender ride. The handicapper dropped him a pound to 85 so he is now back to his last winning mark. That win came at Newmarket and he has a fine record here.
Course Form
His form figures on the Rowley course bar this race last year read 1152 and he was only beat 1.5L off 90 the day he finished 5th (8f gd). Given his fine track record it is not beyond the realms that he has been targeted at this race and when you look at his last few runs, it is a definite possibility that he has.
Mick Easterby has had four winners in the last week so he is in form and James Sullivan takes over in the plate and he has ridden over 50 winners for the yard. Unlike last year, Carolus Magnus has a very nice draw in stall 27 and once there is no messing at the start, he could surprise with a big run at odds of 100/1.
