Saturday Night Grand Slam of Darts Preview and Tips – JP

by | Nov 19, 2022

Saturday Night Grand Slam of Darts Preview

We were treated to two cracking games of darts last night but we had to go without a winner. You can rarely keep James Punt down for long, though, and he is back in action this evening. Check out James’ Saturday night Grand Slam of Darts preview below.

Nathan Aspinall vs. Alan Soutar

And yet another quarter final which is a repeat of a group match. Aspinall lost 4-5 to Soutar in their opening group match and since then, The Asp has had a fairly easy run, beating Sherrock, an out of sorts Wright and Jermaine Wattimena. He has lost five of his last ten matches and while he got closer to his A game against Wattimena, there have to be a few doubts about his form.

Alan Soutar was showing signs of a return to form coming into this event and his good run isn’t a total surprise. He has won seven of his last ten matches but his consistency isn’t brilliant.

Aspinall is averaging 94 for the tournament, Soutar 93.5. Their H2H record is now 2-0 to Soutar. In terms of 180s, Soots has hit 13 at a rate of 0.30 per leg, Aspinall just 9 at a rate of 0.23. It has been his 180s which have kept him competitive and he has backed it up with good doubling, the loss against Wright being the exception.

Asp Odds On

The market has Aspinall as the 1.40 favourite with Soutar 3.10. Aspinall is much more experienced in these big TV matches. He is a major winner and has played in nine ranking TV quarter finals, winning five, while this will be Soutar’s first.

It is hard to argue with the odds but the fact that Soutar has won both their previous matches does cloud the issue. However, Aspinall is an adrenaline junkie and he loves these big matches, he does raise his game and he loves a scrap.

Soutar we know little about at this level in a major. His throw is all his own and I wonder how well it will hold up over such a long match. He is a firefighter and an ex-commando so playing a big darts match isn’t going to faze him and he copes with pressure well.

No Surprise

It wasn’t a surprise that he beat Clayton as The Ferret is a bit off his game, but The Asp looked to be finding his range against Wattimena and I expect him to win. The odds are of no interest so a look at the handicap market is in order.

Aspinall’s last major quarter final was against Martin Lukeman in the World Grand Prix, a player at a similar level to Soutar, and he won that 3-2 in set play. He lost 14-16 to MVG in the World Grand prix quarter final. He has won two World Championship quarter finals and his defeat by van den Bergh in 2020 was in a deciding leg and he rarely plays poorly in the big ones.

Saturday night Grand Slam of Darts Tip: 1 point Nathan Aspinall to win -2.5 legs @ 1.72 with BET365
Saturday night Grand Slam of Darts Tip: 0.5 point Nathan Aspinall to win 16 -12 @ 10.00 generally available

Michael van Gerwen vs. Luke Humphries

At last! A quarter final which is not a repeat of a group match.

Van Gerwen has won seven of his last ten matches and won his group, despite losing a match to Ross Smith. His tournament average is a touch under 104 and he has played nine Grand Slam quarter finals and won six, but has lost in the last two years. He lost to Simon Whitlock in 2020 and to Michael Smith in 2021.

His H2H record with Humphries is 7-3, in 2022 it is 3-2 and on TV 2-1. There is encouragement for Humphries in that he beat MVG in the UK Open semi-final last year (11-5) and he had a 7-0 win against on the Euro Tour this year.

99 Average

Humphries tournament average is 99, his seasonal average is just 1 point shy of MVG’s and his win rate is a little higher at 74%. He has played five ranked major semi-finals and won just one. He won four Euro Tour titles this season but he lost a lot (7) players championship quarter finals and three Euro Tour quarter finals.

Cool Hand has won six of his last ten matches and he is not quite at the top of his game but close to it. His doubling has been a bit iffy at times and he’ll need to improve in that area, as MVG’s scoring means getting chances to break will be hard to come by and he might find himself having to hit some big outs just to hold throw.

Neither player has been particularly strong in terms of 180s with MVG hitting the maximums at 27.5%, very close to his seasonal rate of 26.6%. Luke has only been hitting them @ 20% compared to a seasonal rate of 32.6%. This is another part of his game he needs to improve.

MVG In better form

There is no doubt that Van Gerwen is playing better than Humphries. His doubling has been very impressive, never lower than 50% in his four group matches. It has been part of his game that has been a weakness for him in the last year or two but he seems to have his scoring and doubling right up to scratch.

Van Gerwen is the 1.40 favourite and Humphries 3.55.

Over the last 10 years, 25% of the quarter finals have ended 16-12 and two of MVG’s nine quarter finals have ended 16-12. Humphries will be no pushover and he may take it closer than 16-2 but it has the look of a match where 16-12 is very possible.

Saturday night Grand Slam of Darts Tip: 1 point MVG to win -2.5 legs @ 1.72 with Unibet
Saturday night Grand Slam of Darts Tip: 0.5 point MVG to win 16-12 @ 10.00 with SpreadEx, Boylesports

-JamesPunt

 

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