Sunday Longchamp Arc Meeting Preview and Tips – DS
Sunday Longchamp Arc Meeting Tips
It was a very mixed bag on Saturday. We landed 20s and 66s places but the rest were poor. In France the rain didn’t fall as I’d hoped and that put paid to our selections’ chances. It is the biggest day of the year in French racing today with the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe the feature. We have a ‘stats that matter’ preview that is worth a read if you are looking for some big race inspiration. You can get our Sunday Longchamp Arc Meeting selections below.
1.15 – Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Group 1)
Just the seven will go to post after The Antarctic was withdrawn. Shartash now heads the betting for Murtagh and Coen. He got the better of Blackbeard over 6f at the Curragh in June but he has come up short the last twice, most recently over 7f. On this ground, the trip has to rate as a worry. Pivotal Trigger will relish conditions and the drop back to 7f is in his favour.
His Tipperary form with Hans Anderson and La Dolce Vita is decent. I really rate the latter horse and she could be one that wins a big one on softer ground at the backend of the season. It wasn’t a bad effort at all in G3 company for the first time at Longchamp (8f sft) 3 weeks ago and he’ll have learned plenty from that. 7f will suit him better and his odds of 17/2 are big enough to warrant an e/w bet.
Sunday Longchamp Arc Meeting Tips: Pivotal Trigger e/w @ 17/2
1.50 – Prix Marcel Boussac (Group 1)
The one that is jumping off the page as being overpriced is Start Me Up. This filly is 2/3 so far. She is trained by Phillipe Decouz and he has always thought a lot of this horse. She won on debut over 6f at Saint-Cloud, merely pushed out to win cosily. The horse in 2nd has since been beat less than 3L in a G3 so it was a solid debut run. She won equally as comfortably on her second start, beating subsequent G3 placed Ghrainne by 1.75L.
She barely came out of 3rd gear in those races and Decouz gave her a break as she had a growth spurt. After an 83 day absence she returned in a G3 over today’s C&D. Her trainer said she was badly in need of the run but she ran a huge race, finishing just 2L behind Blue Rose Cen under a very tender ride from Barzalona.
That filly, who was racefit, is 13/2 today and Start Me Up is 28s. Extremely testing ground is an unknown but plenty of her dam’s relatives handled it if it does happen to rain more today and at 28/1, Start Me Up is worth chancing each way.
Sunday Longchamp Arc Meeting Tips: Start Me Up e/w @ 28/1 (4 Places) NAP
3.05 – Prix de L’Arc De Triomphe (Group 1)
We have already backed Bubble Gift for this year’s Arc. You can read my ante-post preview here. He has been backed into 33/1 now so hopefully he can run into the places for us. The other one I want to be on e/w is Sealiway. We backed him for 5 places last year and he finished 5th. He was perhaps ridden more quietly than ideal to conserve his stamina but the way he finished off the race on that bad ground suggested that 12f would pose no problems.
After his run in the Arc connections headed to Ascot and won the Champion Stakes. I’d imagine bookies had him priced up at 80s and 66s in the last few weeks thinking that he’d be heading back to Ascot to defend his crown. However, Baaeed is now being targeted at that race so it is no surprise to see Sealiway pitching up here instead.
This horse is a classy operator and odds of 33/1 are an insult. Ok, he hasn’t won yet this year but he has yet to race over 12f on testing ground. His prep run over 10f here in September should have him spot on and the 4yo son of Galiway will have the considerable assistance of Mickael Barzalona from the saddle. Onesto is another one that ticks a lot of boxes but in my opinion Sealiway is a better horse than him and at 33/1, he is the e/w selection.
Sunday Longchamp Arc Meeting Tips: Bubble Gift already advised @ 66/1; Sealiway e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)
3.50 – Prix de L’Opera Longines (Group 1)
Back in the early part of the season, Rosacea ran a couple of cracking races. The daughter of Soldier Hollow landed a C&D G3 on her return (gd/sft) and then two excellent efforts in G1 company followed. In the French 1000 Guineas, won by Mangoustine, she came home in 4th. She was only a length behind Mangoustine and Cachet and then her next run in the Prix de Diane was even better.
This time, Christophe Soumillon rode her for luck but unfortunately, all she got was bad luck. She was denied a clear run at a crucial time and in the end she had to settle for 3rd, 4.75L behind the winner and 4.5L behind La Parisienne. Those horses are at the head of the market today and Rosacea is 20s after a non-event of a run over 10f at Deauville (10f gd).
In that G2 she raced wide, was a touch keen early and it was her first run for a couple of months. It had prep run written all over it judging by how easy Soumillon was on her in the home straight. The return to softer ground will suit this filly and Stephane Pasquier gets the ride as Soumillon has to ride for his boss. If she can repeat that Prix De Diane run and get a clear passage, Rosacea can outrun her odds of 20/1.
Sunday Longchamp Arc Meeting Tips: Rosacea e/w @ 20/1 (5 places) NB
4.25 – Prix de L’Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1)
An absolutely cracking renewal with 18 due to go to post after the defection of Castle Star. In recent times, a low draw has been absolutely crucial in this race. Usually, the winner comes from stall 7 or lower, but I am going to take a chance on possibly the most overpriced horse in the race from stall 11. Ken Condon supplemented Teresa Mendoza for the race after her fine run last time, but I think the 40/1 available about Moss Tucker is too big too turn down.
First of all, this horse has raced three times on soft and heavy and won all three races. Second of all, and most importantly, he has some excellent form in the book which stands up to scrutiny. On his last outing on soft (four runs ago) he won a conditions race at Tipperary (5f yld/sft). Next time, at Cork, he finished a head behind Erosandpsyche in a handicap off levels.
Excellent Run
Next time, back at Tipp, he ran another excellent race to finish 1.25L behind Erosandpsyche when conceding 3lbs. Then, last time out in a Listed race at the same track he was just denied in a three way photo with Erosandpsyche and Tees Spirit off level weights. The Twomey horse finished 2nd in the G1 Flying Five at the Curragh next time out where he had Flotus (14/1 here), New York City (33s), Mooniesta (18s), Raasel (28s), A Case Of You (16s) and Caturra (28s) in behind.
Joey Sheridan was slow to remove the blindfold last time out so Moss Tucker was arguably an unlucky loser. Connections have opted to enlist the services of Dusty Foley today, a winner aboard this fella on his only previous ride. If Ken Condon’s charge had a better draw he’d be NAP material but even from stall 11, he has to be worth a small interest e/w at odds of 40/1.
Sunday Longchamp Arc Meeting Tips: Moss Tucker e/w @ 40/1 (5 places)
5.00 – Prix de la Foret (Group 1)
The UK and Irish raiders dominate the market for this 7f G1. Kinross is the jolly and he has won his last two starts at G2 level. He ran 4th at this meeting last season when given too much to do by Frankie and he handles soft conditions. New Energy got to within a length of him at Donny last time but Ralph Beckett’s charge probably won more decisively than the distance suggests. Sheila Lavery’s horse is a bit of an enigma, often travelling well and then not finding much. He’s probably a 7.5f horse and he’ll likely finish strong without quite getting there.
Sandrine beat Kinross on good ground earlier this season. She won her only start on very testing ground so connections won’t fear the conditions. Tenebrism will appreciate dropping back to the distance of her last G1 win. Her last two runs over a mile were solid and she is chalked up at 7/2 here. The O’Brien filly has obvious claims but I am going to take a chance on Accakaba at a price.
This daughter of Acclamation lacked the gears to get involved over 6.5f behind the speedy Highfield Princess last time. However, her previous run over 7f at Deauville was a cracker. She stayed on very nicely for 4th in that G1, beat only 1.5L by Tenebrism and ahead of subsequent Woodbine winner Modern Games.
The winner did win decisively but it was a blanket for the places and I’m not sure how Accakaba missed out on 3rd at least. At this meeting last year this filly was just 1.5L behind Angel Bleu on similar ground to today’s. Given how little she has to find with Tenebrism, she is worth chancing each way at odds of 20/1.
