Thursday Sandown Racing Tips and Preview – DS
Thursday Sandown Racing Tips and Preview
Dave Stevos has already had a look at the Epsom Oaks and Epsom Derby this week (click here). The ITV cameras won’t be at Sandown this week which is surprising given the quality of the card. We have two Group 3s and a very interesting Listed heat, as well as the Whitsun Cup Handicap. After our near misses on Sunday, hopefully we can get one on the board. Check out Dave’s Thursday Sandown Racing tips below.
6.15 – National Stakes (Listed)
The first stakes race of the evening is this 2yo Listed Sprint. This is a cracking little race. Irish raider Crispy Cat brings the best form into the race. A winner on debut at Cork (5f gd), he followed up with a sterling effort behind Blackbeard in a Listed heat at the Curragh (5f yld). The winner boosted the form in a big way next time out, hacking up in a G3. To be honest, 2/1 looks a big price for this fella and I’m not sure why Tajalla is so much shorter than him.
Roger Varian’s charge did make a taking impression on his Newmarket debut (5f gd) but what did he beat. The runner up Fragrance has run twice since and she needed to drop into a class 5 heat to barely get her head in front. The 5th and 6th did nothing subsequently either so would I be lumping on at 6/5? No chance. Instead, I’ll be taking a punt on Democracy Dilemma at double figure odds.
Improver
Trained by the shrewd David Evans, this son of Cotai Glory has improved with every run. He was a decent 3rd on debut at Windsor (5f gd). Then, he chased Kaasib home at Salisbury (5f gd/fm). On his third start at Chester the penny dropped and he absolutely hacked up, beating Self Praise and Blatant by over 3 lengths.
Blatant came out of that race and hosed up on his next start in a Leicester maiden. The 6th home, Estate, was 7L behind the winner but he finished a close 2nd on his next start at Bath. With Crispy Cat in the field, Democracy Dilemma is unlikely to get an easy lead but he is well drawn in stall 2 and hopefully he can go at least one place better than Evans’ last runner in this race, Fabiosa, who finished a close 4th in 2020. His form is stronger than the fav’s, good to soft ground is fine and at 18/1, Democracy Dilemma is worth chancing e/w.
Thursday Sandown Racing Tips: Democracy Dilemma e/w @ 18/1
6.50 – Henry II Stakes (Group 3)
Eight are due to go to post for this 16f Group 3 contest. Enemy heads the market for Ian Williams and Danny Tudhope. This horse comes into the race in rude health. Last sighted running Princess Zoe close at Ascot, he landed a valuable Musselburgh handicap on his penultimate start off 99. This 5yo is thriving and his last run proved he belongs at this sort of level. He’ll have plenty of supporters at 11/4.
Quickthorn and Thunderous look to be the biggest threats on paper. Thunderous ran a massive race behind Stradivarius last time at York. We backed him on his penultimate start at Chester when he ran Hamish close. Franny Norton will go from the front on this fella and a visor is now applied, presumably because of him drifting to the left at York. The worry for me is that this will be his third race in three weeks and he had hard races the last twice.
Leeper The Value
Quickthorn actually finished ahead of the fav at Ascot, a head behind Princess Zoe. His runs have been spaced out nicely in comparison to Thunderous and if I was backing one of the top three, he would be my selection. However, at double figure odds I am going to take a chance on Ed Dunlop’s 4yo, John Leeper. He definitely represents a bit of e/w value now upped in trip.
Last time out the son of Snow Fairy finished 3L behind Thunderous at Chester. He was keen early, was held up and he didn’t enjoy the clearest of runs 2f out. That’s the worst possible place to be hampered at Chester and it cost him any chance of winning. Ryan Moore wasn’t overly hard on him afterwards but he made up a heap of ground in the closing stages to nick 4th.
This will be the furthest trip he has tackled to date. Being by Frankel, there is a very good chance he will stay and on the evidence of his Chester effort, this distance could really suit. Ryan Moore is keeping the faith and at odds of 11/1, John Leeper is the e/w selection.
Thursday Sandown Racing Tips: John Leeper e/w @ 11/1 NAP
7.25 – Brigadier Gerard Stakes (Group 3)
It is hard to get away from the claims of Mostahdaf in this G3. He is a dual course winner, including when landing a G3 over C&D last time. He has now won his last three, two G3s and a Listed. The ease in the ground is not an issue and with both Bay Bridge and Addeybb lacking a recent run and Lord Glitters probably wanting better ground, John and Thady Gosden’s son of Frankel is hard to oppose. He’s not a bet for me at 11/8 but he should win.
Thursday Sandown Racing Tips: No Bet
8.00 – Whitsun Cup Handicap (Class 3)
The one I am backing in this 20k handicap is Lyndon B. John Flint’s charge has a decent record at this track and odds of 25/1 look far too big. The reason he is that big a price is probably because of his comeback run. At Ascot he was beaten 44 lengths but he had a valid excuse as William Cox’s saddle slipped. He was actually bang there up until 2f out and even though he was beaten such a distance, the run should have brought him on fitness wise.
Generous Handicapper
The handicapper generously dropped this horse 2lbs to 83 after that run. That means he is off the same rating as when beat just 1.25L at Goodwood (9f gd) on his final run of last season. Previous to that, he ran three races in a row at Sandown. In July he finished fast and strong to beat Emphatic off a mark of 82. Next time he couldn’t land a blow in a valuable handicap off 84. In September, off 84, he was 4th beat 2.25L when he didn’t get the clearest of runs.
John Flint likely earmarked this race for Lyndon B after his excellent efforts over C&D last season. He sneaks in off a nice low weight and with William Cox’s 3lb claim, he is effectively 2lbs lower than he was for his win here last season. He won off 90 at Sandown back in August 2019 and his overall course form figures read 16104. The more the ground dries out the better this fella’s chance will be and his trainer has had a winner and three places from his last six runners. At odds of 25/1, Lyndon B can hopefully hit the frame.
