Warwick and Kempton Saturday Tips – Dave Stevos

by | Jan 14, 2022

Warwick and Kempton Saturday

Bar Rikoboy, last weekend was a disaster. Inferno Sacree was very disappointing, as was Monsieur Lecoq. Rikoboy ran a cracker for us at 18/1, nicking place money in 2nd. Mr Glass wasn’t up to the task and Ouro Branco went out like a light after racing prominently. The ground was too soft for Dancing Shadow and front runner Navajo Pass was dropped out and held up and as a result, he ran no race. Six of the nine live ITV races tomorrow have seven runners or less so betting opportunities are limited. We’ll still give it a go though, check out our Warwick and Kempton Saturday tips below.

1.32 Kempton – Handicap Chase (Class 3)

The opener at Warwick is a four runner handicap chase which I have zero interest in betting on. With little to no rain forecast the ground is likely to remain soft at Kempton. That’ll suit the favourite Champagne Court. Trained by in form Jeremy Scott, we’ve backed this fella a few times in the past and he has usually disappointed. I have no doubt about his ability to win off his rating of 130. It just depends on whether he actually decides to produce his best. If he does show up in top form, he is definitely the one to beat. However, would I be backing him at 11/4? No chance, he’s let the side down too many times before.

Given his affinity for fast, flat tracks, it is perhaps surprising that this is Fanzio’s first run at Kempton. Richard Hobson, who is in excellent form, trains this fella. After a dire effort on his comeback at Cheltenham, he bounced back to form with an excellent 2nd at Doncaster (16.5f gd/sft). He was beat 1.25L by Xcitations and the way he finished off his race suggested he was ready to step back up in trip. Two of his chase wins have come at 19f/20f and as he showed last time, his current mark is not beyond him. At odds of 6/1, a small win bet on Fanzio is advised.

Warwick and Kempton Saturday Tips: Fanzio win @ 6/1

1.50 Warwick – Hampton Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)

Threeunderthrufive is odds on for this Grade 2 for Nicholls and Heskin. He is on a four timer and he landed a Grade 2 at Doncaster last time by 7.5L. That was only a three runner affair and he was entitled to win as he did on ratings. Mint Condition is next best in the betting for Jennie Candlish and Henry Brooke. He was a narrow runner up in the Leamington at this meeting last season and this race is likely his main target. However, his very best form has come on bottomless ground and it may not be testing enough for him at Warwick.

One horse who will like the conditions is Doyen Breed for Sandy Thomson and Ryan Mania. Soft/good to soft ground is ideal for this son of Doyen. He was last sighted running a very nice race off 143 in a handicap at Kelso. However, only two of the four starters finished the race so it probably isn’t the most reliable piece of form. On his previous start Doyen Breed landed a Novice at Hexham (24f gd/sft), beating Emitom by a head.

Emitom was a lot further behind Threeunderthrufive at Doncaster subsequently so on a line through him, Thomson’s charge has it to do. However, the fact that SandyThomson is making a 600 mile round trip to have his first ever Warwick runner suggests that he thinks there may be more to come from this 7yo. The track should suit him well and the trip and ground are perfect. At odds of 6/1, Doyen Breed can hopefully finish 2nd at the very least.

Warwick and Kempton Saturday Tips: Doyen Breed e/w @ 6/1

2.05 Kempton – Silviniaco Conti Chase (Grade 2)

A stinking turnout of just four for this valuable Grade 2 contest. The ‘big four’ trainers are represented in this 20.5f chase. Tizzard runs Eldorado Allen, Henderson runs Mister Fisher, Hobbs runs Defi Du Seuil and Nicholls runs Rouge Vif. Mister Fisher, who has failed to complete four of his last six starts, is the 7/4 favourite. When he does get round he usually goes close but is he one to be lumping on at skinny enough odds? Not in my book.

Defi Du Seuil is on a retrieval mission after four desperate efforts. He looked set to dominate the 16f chasing division when he beat Un De Sceaux twice in 2019/20 but he has been beaten a combined distance of 65L in the last three races he managed to finish. Rouge Vif has a similar profile. He is another one with plenty of natural ability but since winning in October 2020 he has racked up four defeats on the spin, the last three all by over 20 lengths.

Eldorado Allen is probably the most reliable one in the race but at 11/4, he isn’t big enough to tempt. Even with just four horses, this race is a minefield. I wouldn’t be surprised if only one or two of them finished but predicting which ones will get round isn’t easy. A race I’ll definitely just be watching. No Bet.

Warwick and Kempton Saturday Tips: No Bet

2.25 Warwick – Leamington Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)

I think the outsider of the field Scipion could be worth a little flutter here. Trained by Tom Lacey, this son of Shantou made his debut under rules at Leicester a month ago (20f sft). I thought he ran an absolute blinder in 2nd behind Jetoile. Scipion finished just 5L behind the winner and he has since gone on to chase Constitution Hill home in a G1. Admittedly, Lacey’s horse was getting 7lbs from the Potter horse but Jetoile was having his third race of the season whereas Scipion hadn’t run since finishing 2nd in a P2P back in April.

That P2P form is quite solid too. He finished just 2L behind a horse called Minella Crooner and he has since won a pair of Irish bumpers and was runner up in a traditionally hot Leopardstown maiden hurdle over the Festive period. The winner of that hurdle is 6/1 for the Ballymore and the third home was Grade 1 bumper winner Klicruit. The likes of Surrey Quest, Stag Horn and Viva Lavilla are promising types but so is Scipion and at odds of 22/1, he is the each way selection.

Warwick and Kempton Saturday Tips: Scipion e/w @ 22/1

2.40 Kempton – Lanzarote Hurdle (Listed)

The big betting race of the day on Saturday is the 21f Lanzarote Hurdle. This Listed contest is always very competitive and this season is no different. A maximum field of 20 are due to go to post and with extra places on offer, I am going to chance one each way at tasty odds. Dan Skelton runs a couple here and a few fancy Ch’tibello to run big with Tristan Durrell taking off 7lbs. He has some decent course form at 16f in the book and he is looking well handicapped. It’s a bit late in the day to be trying 21f for the first time though and at bigger odds, I think Skelton’s other horse is of interest.

Cabot Cliffs is a 5yo son of Gleneagles and Bridget Andrews rides. This horse was sent off at just 12/1 in the Fred Winter last season after two impressive wins at Warwick. He was far too keen at Cheltenham though and he was well beat off 137. He has had two runs this term, both at 16f on good. This gelding was entitled to need his comeback and last time at Ascot he was a big eyecatcher. Dan Skelton rode and he was a lot more patient on the usual front runner. It looked to me like he was trying to teach him to settle and the new tactics worked nicely.

In Rear

He had Cabot Cliffs in rear throughout and he was nowhere near as keen as he usually is. Turning in he was still out the back but he was travelling well and it seemed as though Skelton was in no hurry to make his effort. When he did finally give him the office between the last two hurdles the leaders had flown but Cabot Cliffs stayed on takingly and only failed to get up for 3rd by a neck.

On the evidence of that run, he is well worth a crack at 21f. His dam was placed over 14f on the level and his sire, Gleneagles, has produced a couple of decent middle distance types (Highland Chief, Loving Dream) so there is a decent chance he’ll stay on breeding. He had a similar break last season before coming back and winning two on the bounce and it looks to me like he has been trained for this race. If he can settle as well as he did the last day, a huge run could be on the cards at odds of 28/1.

Warwick and Kempton Saturday Tips: Cabot Cliffs e/w @ 28/1 NAP (6 Places)

3.00 Warwick – Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Staying power will be the name of the game in this £100k, 29f handicap chase. Fifteen will go to post and it looks a wide open affair. Notachance won this last season off 139 and he is back to defend his crown off the same mark. He was pulled up three times in a row following that victory but he finally showed some positive signs when 6th at Haydock last time out (25.5f sft). However, he was still beaten 28L and he needs to improve hugely on that to win this race again.

At the prices, it could be worth taking a chance on Captain Tommy at 16/1. This horse has done most of his winning on good ground but he should just about get away with the conditions at Warwick. The run that makes him of interest came at Exeter two starts back (24f sft/gd/sft in places). He was in off 120 that day, the same rating he runs off here. Jamie Moore always had him up with the pace but when they quickened before the fourth last fence he got a bit tapped for toe.

Moore administered a couple of reminders and while he didn’t have the pace to challenge for the win, he kept on very nicely after the second last and Moore was extremely easy on him after he pinged the last. The money was down last time at Cheltenham when he was brought down by a faller when still going well. Hopefully Captain Tommy can gain compensation today at odds of 16/1.

Warwick and Kempton Saturday Tips: Captain Tommy e/w @ 16/1 NB (5 Places)

3.15 Kempton – Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Double Shuffle rolled back the years to win this race last season off a mark of 140. He is back to try and win it again off 141 but he comes into it on the back of two poor runs. The son of Milan took a heavy fall in the National last season and perhaps that has left a mark. However, it might be worth giving him one more chance now that he is back at his favourite track. His Kempton record is excellent and he has rarely run a bad race there (career form figures 122527316).

His last run was too bad to be true but maybe he had some slight breathing issues and hopefully the first time tongue tie will help him. The return to slightly easier ground is a positive for him and he is definitely on a competitive mark. Five of his seven opponents ran poorly or failed to complete last time (Caribean Boy, A Toi Phil, Strictlyadancer, Wishing And Hoping, Mac Tottie) out so this looks a particularly weak race. It isn’t a contest for maximum stakes but at odds of 12/1, Double Shuffle is worthy of a small interest each way.

Warwick and Kempton Saturday Tips: Double Shuffle e/w @ 12/1

3.35 Warwick – Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

Just seven will go to post and this is not an appealing betting race. The top 6 qualify for the final at Cheltenham in March but will any of these want to win and blow their marks? Riggs is the only one that needs a rise in the weights to get in so that is probably why he is the market leader. Gordon Elliott had nine entered in this race originally but only Sire Du Berlais has been declared. He’ll be aiming for sixth place and he’ll be hoping to get a pound or two back in the process. I am happy to sit this one out as there will be far too much pulling and dragging going on. No bet.

Warwick and Kempton Saturday Tips: No Bet

-DaveStevos

 

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