2024 Cheltenham Festival Favourites: Lump or Lay?

by Dave Stevos | Mar 5, 2024

2024 Cheltenham Festival Favourites: Lump or Lay?

Just a week to go now until the least hotly anticipated Cheltenham festival of all time. News broke on Monday that both Constitution Hill and Marine Nationale are going to be absentees. I’ve also heard rumours that a few more of Nicky Henderson’s have scoped dirty so don’t be surprised if some of his are pulled out in the coming days. We’ll plough on with our 2024 Cheltenham Festival Favourites preview regardless, find out whether you should lump or lay below.

Ballyburn – Supreme Novice Odds 2.00/Baring Bingham Odds 2.00

There is nearly always one massively hyped horse for the opening race of the Festival. Even though he isn’t certain to run in the Supreme, Ballyburn is the banker of the week for many. He’s even money for both the opener and the Baring Bingham and it is hard to argue against his claims in either race.

At Xmas he absolutely hacked up in a 20f Leopardstown maiden and then at the DRF he scored by 7L in a Grade 1 Novice over the Supreme Trip. Slade Steel was runner up in that Grade 1 and he is entered in the Baring Bingham, for which he is the 9/2 second favourite.

In my opinion, Slade Steel is going to be a far better horse back up in trip at 20f and if Ballyburn does go down that route, he could put it right up to him. At the shorter trip, the bookies make Tullyhill the biggest danger but if the ground is decent, I think Tellherthename could surprise a few with a big run at nice odds.

Hard To Pick Holes

It is hard to pick holes in the Mullins’ hotpot, no matter what race he goes for. His Shakem Up’Arry-esque low head carriage isn’t an issue for me and his jumping has got better with every run. He has won on all sorts of ground and he has won going left handed so there shouldn’t be any issues regarding the track.

If he does go for the 20f race, Slade Steel could be a big danger as Ballyburn wasn’t pulling away from him over 16f and the trip will definitely suit the De Bromhead horse better than two miles. So, if Ballyburn goes for the Supreme, he’s a lump job in my opinion but if he takes on Slade Steel again in the Baring Bingham, I’d take a chance on laying him.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Favourites: Ballyburn – Supreme Novices Hurdle: Lump @ 2.00; Baring Bingham: Lay @ 1.80.

State Man – Champion Hurdle Odds 1.40

We have another hot favourite on Day 1 in the feature, the Champion Hurdle. The defection of Constitution Hill has left State Man at the top of the market and he is long odds on to go one better than his clear second placed finish in 2023.

Willie Mullins’ charge has been kept busy this season, probably because connections thought he’d be playing second fiddle behind Constitution Hill in this. He had an identical prep last year and Paul Townend claimed afterwards that he didn’t run his race at the Festival so that has to rate as a bit of a worry.

Questionable Form

While he has undoubtedly been very impressive this year, when you look at his form it isn’t really that strong. He had 5l to spare over Echoes In Rain on his return at Punchestown and while she’s a decent mare, she is no superstar and the ground was too soft for her that day.

At Christmas he beat Impaire Et Passe by 3.25L. He is 8/1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle and his win at last year’s Festival came over 21f in the Baring Bingham. Then last time he beat Bob Olinger by 5L (Impaire Et Passe 3rd), a 9yo who has never won at 16f in his career.

Highest Rated

State Man is officially rated 166, 8lbs superior to his closest British rival on the figures, the 12yo Not So Sleepy. Irish Point is his highest rated Irish opponent but he is a stayer and he’s unlikely to have the necessary speed over this distance.

There’s been talk about Lossiemouth being rerouted too but Ricci more often than not goes wherever his horses have the best chance of winning and she is odds on for the Mares’ Hurdle. Pied Piper is seemingly bound for the County Hurdle so it looks to me like State Man’s biggest threat could be his stablemate, Zarak The Brave. However, he has a stone to find on the figures.

Although you can pick holes in the strength of his form, you can also pick plenty of holes in the strength of the opposition in the Champion Hurdle. Zarak The Brave is a definite potential improver and if I were having a bet now, he’d be my e/w selection at 17.00. However, State Man is fairly hard to oppose in this field and I’d prefer to be a backer than a layer.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Favourites: State Man – Lump @ 1.40

Fact To File – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Odds 1.91

A fascinating runner who has been hyped to the max by plenty of pundits in the last couple of weeks. The time fanatics were raving about his performance at the DRF last month where he won a match against Gaelic Warrior, who failed to complete. That was over 21f on soft and it was similar conditions at the same track at Christmas when he beat Zanahiyr by a wide margin.

On his seasonal return he could only finish second behind American Mike at Navan but his last two runs have been well above that level. Are there any chinks in his armour? Well, he did jump to his right a few times in both his runs at Leopardstown and he was a beaten favourite at last year’s Festival in the Bumper behind A Dream To Share.

Stamina Concerns

The 7yo son of Poliglote has yet to try this trip under rules so he has stamina to prove too. Now, he did win a P2P over 24f but his half siblings that have raced in France were best at 18f to 22f so there has to be worries about his stamina.

Stay Away Fay and Monty’s Star are guaranteed to get this trip and the Nicholls’ horse has already shown he has what it takes to win at the Festival. Broadway Boy is another course winner that stays all day but he has to prove he can mix it at this level.

Another issue for me is his lack of experience in big fields over jumps. Twenty one ran in last year’s Champion Bumper but his three chase runs have come in fields of six, five and two. Maybe the hype will be fully justified but I think this fella has a bit to prove for an odds on shot so at odds of 1.91, he’s a lay for me.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Favourites: Fact To File – Lay @ 1.91

El Fabiolo – Champion Chase Odds 1.50

Another Mullins’ odds on shot. Willie has won the last two renewals of this with Energumene and El Fabiolo is 1.50 to complete the hat trick. The 7yo son of Spanish Moon is unbeaten in six chase starts, a sequence that includes a 5.5L win ahead of Jonbon in last year’s Arkle.

Clearly, this is a horse with a serious engine. Like Ballyburn, he has a low head carriage but that hasn’t stopped him so far. The one big issue I have with this horse is his jumping. Yes, it is true that he has never fallen but he has got away with making quite a few mistakes in his races and one of these days, an error will catch him out.

Processions

His two races since moving out of Novice company have pretty much been processions. Last time at Leopardstown he defeated Dinoblue by 8L in a five runner affair but he didn’t impress with his jumping. On his seasonal return down in Mallow he again put in a couple of sketchy jumps when beating Fil D’Or by 4.75L.

In this race he’ll be taking on the strongest opponent he has faced so far in Edwardstone. He made all and jumped like a stag at Newbury last time and those aggressive tactics really seemed to suit him. Willie Mullins usually uses a front runner to set the pace for El Fabiolo, in last year’s Arkle it was Dysart Dynamo and at the DRF Gentleman De Mee got the job.

Pacemaker

Gentleman De Mee is in here as a likely pacemaker again so it’ll be interesting to see what Alan King does with Edwardstone. If he gives Tom Cannon the green light to go from the front, I think he could put El Fabiolo’s jumping under serious pressure and it’ll be fascinating to see if it holds up.

There is also a chance that King could revert to more patient tactics but Edwardstone looked to relish being in the lead last time so surely, they’ll do the same again.

Jonbon was beaten by Elixir De Nutz here last time and the negative vibes emanating from his yard have to rate a huge worry. Captain Guinness will be well suited by a race run at a proper clip and last year’s runner up represents good e/w value at 20/1. I’m not sure this is going to be as simple a race as the odds suggest and at 1.50, I’m going to take El Fabiolo on.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Favourites: El Fabiolo – Lay @ 1.50

Sir Gino – Triumph Hurdle Odds 1.73

If Ballyburn is the Irish banker of the season, Sir Gino is definitely the home team’s most obvious chance of a winner. He was a most impressive winner of the Triumph Trial here back in January, destroying a pretty decent yardstick in Burdett Road. He has won both British starts by a combined distance of 24L and he is clearly an extremely exciting prospect.

However, the cloud that the Henderson yard is under has to be a massive concern for his supporters. As I said earlier, there’s a rumour that quite a few more of his horses scoped poorly this week and while he has had a couple of winners and places in the last fortnight, his last 16 runners have returned form figures of 1PPP3PPP555P2P1P.

Hard To Be Confident

So, could you back anything from his yard with any confidence? The answer has to be an emphatic no. This lad is obviously a talented horse but if he isn’t 100% healthy then you couldn’t be backing him at his current odds.

There’s a host of Willie Mullins horses waiting in the long grass to pounce if he isn’t right, including Salvator Mundi, who was only 1.75L behind the Henderson horse when they met at Auteuil last April. Majborough is another one with lots of potential and the filly Kargese is no mug either.

If Henderson gets a winner or two on the board in the first three days, then my opinion could change but as things stand, Sir Gino has to be a lay at odds of 1.67.