2024 Cheltenham Festival Thursday Preview – DS

by Dave Stevos | Mar 13, 2024

2024 Cheltenham Festival Thursday Preview & Tips

Finally a winner on Wednesday. Captain Guinness won the Champion Chase advised at 12s and ante-post at 20s. Unfortunately, the rest of the day didn’t go so well but we did get superb efforts from Giovinco and De Capo Glory, both just one place away from the money. Fingers crossed we can add another winner or two on Day 3, Dave Stevos’ 2024 Cheltenham Festival Thursday tips are below.

Weather Watch

The ground had dried out to soft, heavy in places by the time of racing on Wednesday. At the time of writing there was no further rain but the app we use is showing showers before and during racing tomorrow. I can’t see it drying out too much and it should be soft at least again on Thursday.

1.30 – Turners Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

Just two Mullins runners in this 20f Novices’ Chase. What odds the 1-2? Not likely. Facile Vega looks to be the chosen one with stable jockey Paul Townend in the saddle and he is the pick of the bookies too at around 9/4. However, unlike many of his stablemates he isn’t miles clear on the ratings. In fact, both Grey Dawning (153) and Ginny’s Destiny (155) are rated higher.

That being said, the Mullins’ novices have mostly been making mincemeat of their UK rivals. However, this horse looks far from bulletproof. He is only 1/3 over fences and it hasn’t looked like he has been crying out for this step up in trip. Mullins also runs the admirable 11yo Sharjah but he’s come up short at all five festivals he has run at. It will likely be a similar story today.

UK Hopes

Can the home team get one on the board here? Ginny’s Destiny has already beaten Grey Dawning over C&D but the Skelton horse made a bad mistake two out and only for that, he’d have won. Now, jumping is the name of the game and he has fallen over hurdles so that has to be a worry. He probably does have the biggest engine in the race though and with a clear round, he ought to go very close.

Iroko is another very interesting UK contender. He won the Martin Pipe here last year before running well in an Aintree G1 novice hurdle behind Apple Away. The negative for him is that he has only run once in a chase and it was only a five runner field. It was back in November too so not only does he lack experience, he also lacks a recent run. At the odds I’d be just watching him today.

Mudlover

Of the outsiders, Colonel Harry could outrun his price of 40/1. He ran poorly last time in a Grade 1 at Sandown but good ground was a valid excuse. On his last start on soft ground he won a 19f Wetherby Grade 2, beating Trelawne by just under 2L. He also had JPR One 5L behind when finishing second in the 16f Henry VIII at Sandown on heavy back in December.

The key to this 7yo son of Shirocco is soft ground and going left handed. He’s only been beaten twice on soft/heavy (112411) and those two defeats came over 16f going to the right. He is unexposed on soft ground at this trip and he has won a 24f P2P on soft so stamina won’t be an issue. On the figures he hasn’t got a huge amount to find so at 40/1, Colonel Harry is the e/w selection.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Thursday Tip: Colonel Harry e/w @ 40/1

2.10 – Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle (Premier)

We have already backed Popova for this at 25/1 in our handicaps ante-post preview (link at bottom of page). Rachael Blackmore will ride and the money has come. To be honest, I was hoping for better ground for her but she is as short as 9/1 now with a couple of firms so perhaps connections think she is going to be fine on it. Hopefully they are right.

In case she does flop on the ground, I’m going to back another one here. Hector Javilex was sent off at just 14/1 for this race last season and he ran a stinker. He had absolutely hosed up over C&D off 126 on his penultimate run before the Final and I’m hoping that maybe he was feeling the effects of a long season that began in October.

Changed Things Up

This year, Charlie Longsdon has changed things up. His 7yo son of Saddler Maker has run just twice and he shaped as though he was coming into form when qualifying for this race at Musselburgh last month, finishing third with Anna Bunina a neck behind in fourth. Springwell Boy was 3L ahead in second and Longsdon’s horse is 2lbs better off with him now.

This will be Hector Javilex’s third run of the season, just like it was last year when he hosed up here. Soft ground is fine for him and if it does dry out a bit, that won’t be an issue. The talented Lily Pinchin takes the ride and she knows this lad inside out. Surely this has been a long term plan so back Hector Javilex e/w @ 50/1.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Thursday Tip: Popova already advised e/w @ 25/1 (5 places); Hector Javilex e/w @ 50/1 (6 places) NB

2.50 – Ryanair Chase (Grade 1)

One of the more open Grade 1s of the week. Banbridge would have been very hard to beat on better ground. However, I’d imagine he’ll be taken out given the conditions, just like he was last year.

Speaking of last year, Envoi Allen is back to defend the crown he won in very taking fashion, beating Shishkin by nearly 3L. He hasn’t won since but he ran a nice race behind Gerri Colombe when last seen and this festival usually brings the best out of him.

Conflated could be a big danger back in trip. He hasn’t got home over 24f the last twice, unseating at the final fence on both occasions at Leopardstown. Last year’s Gold Cup third should finish more strongly over 21f and if he gets into a good rhythm he has the ability to put it up to these.

Skelton In Form

In our stats based preview Protektorat ticked quite a few boxes. Dan Skelton fired in a handicap double on Wednesday so the stable is definitely in form and this horse has run plenty of good races at this track, including when a decent fifth in the Gold Cup last year.

He hasn’t won this season but bar a terrible effort on his seasonal return, he’s been running well. He was a huge eyecatcher in a Premier handicap here (26f sft), he was only 2l behind L’Homme Presse at Lingfield and then last time, he finished 4.75L behind Shishkin. We have already backed him at 20/1 and he is now 10s. I’m happy to stick with him and if he produces what he is capable of, he should go very close.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Thursday Tip: Protektorat already advised e/w @ 20/1

3.30 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

The best Grade 1 of the week? Probably. We have already backed two horses in this race. I put up Buddy One at 50s in our stats that matter preview (link below) and he is now into around 28s. Kings Hill ran poorly for Paul Gilligan in the Supreme but he would have hated the ground. This horse is effective on soft ground and once it doesn’t turn heavy, he can hopefully sneak into the places.

In our long range ante-post preview back in January we also backed Home By The Lee at 33/1. Joseph O’Brien’s charge is now as short as 12/1 so we are in a decent position with him too. The ground should pose no problems and once he doesn’t get too far back early, he should be finishing off his race better than most.

Market Leaders

The two horses at the top of the market are Teahupoo and Crambo. They have youth on their side and apart from last year, that has been a big positive in this race. I suspect the Elliott horse might be more effective on this soft ground than his main market rival and he was unlucky not to win this last season.

The three elder lemons can’t be fully discounted either. Sire Du Berlais is the reigning champ and he saves his best for Cheltenham. Paisley Park has been running well all season and he should be staying on at the finish. Last but not least is the old warrior, Dashel Drasher. He went close in this last year and it’ll take a brave one to pass him, especially if the ground is testing.

I’ll probably have a little bet on him too but I think we have two good chances in Home By The Lee and Buddy One and we’ve got the value so I’m happy to stick with those two. Hopefully they both run good races and sneak into the frame.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Thursday Tip: Already Advised: Home By The Lee e/w @ 33/1; Buddy One e/w @ 50/1

4.10 – Plate Handicap Chase (Premier)

Bar the Ultima, the handicaps haven’t been kind to us so far but hopefully Frero Banbou can put that right. Trained by Venetia Williams, a three time winner of this race, this 9yo ran poorly in this last season off 135. However, the ground may have just been a bit lively for him that day and he should be more comfortable in these conditions.

This season he has been running well for the most part without winning. He finished third in the Grand Sefton (21f hvy), third in the December Gold Cup here (20f sft) and second behind Shakem Up’Arry in a Premier Handicap on New Year’s Day at Cheltenham (20.5f hvy).

Jumping Error

Admittedly, his last two runs have been poor but a bad jumping error cost him at Lingfield over 16f and then he probably wasn’t in love with the track at Musselburgh last time. He gets into this off 133, 2lbs lower than last season and 1lb below his last winning mark.

His course form figures read 33032, including a third in the Grand Annual in 2022. He’ll obviously need to put in a good round of jumping today and the start will be key. If Charlie Deutsch can get him away in a good position and get him into a nice rhythm, surely Frero Banbou is capable of running into a place here. At odds of 25/1, he is the e/w selection.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Thursday Tip: Frero Banbou e/w @ 25/1 (5 places) nap

4.50 – Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)

Jamie Snowden pulled off a shock with You Wear It Well in this race last year. I’m hoping that Jeremy Scott can do likewise with his very exciting mare, Golden Ace. This daughter of Golden Horn has been seen just twice this season after her excellent run in the G2 bumper at Aintree last April. She was 9L behind Dysart Enos in that race but I think she can close that gap markedly over hurdles.

Her two runs this season have both been at Taunton. In the first one, a 19f novice on soft, she overcame a mistake at the second last to beat Lucky Place by 0.75l. He ran a cracker here in the Coral Cup off 137 on Wednesday and he also finished second in a G2 behind Gidleigh Park. The two pulled well clear of the 130 rated Insurrection in third.

Straightforward

It was a lot more straightforward for Scott’s charge last time. She won in a hack canter giving 6lbs to Linda Moon and while that form is not up to much, she could do no more than beat what was in front of her. That should have left her spot on for this and I think she is capable of running a huge race.

The Gordon Elliott trained Brighterdaysahead hasn’t put a hoof wrong in five runs. She has racked up a sequence of 1s but let’s be honest, the form of her last two wins is not exactly earth shattering. This will be the litmus test for her and while the vibes from the yard are good, it remains to be seen if she is actually as good as they think she is. She’s only 6/4, I’d rather take a chance on Golden Ace. Fingers crossed she brings home the e/w money.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Thursday Tip: Golden Ace e/w @ 14/1

5.30 – Kim Muir Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (Grade 1)

We backed Dom Of Mary in a handicap chase here back in November. He wasn’t off a yard but he certainly was the next day in Plumpton when he absolutely dotted up in the Sussex National. That was over a trip of 28f on soft ground so we know he’ll stay, the question is can he be as competitive off a 9lbs higher mark.

I think he can be and his run last time in a hot handicap at Sandown off 127 proved it. He was only beat 1.75L in that 24f contest and the fact it came on good ground made it an even more impressive effort. This son of Saddler Maker is best on soft ground, just like it was at Plumpton. He won his bumper on heavy and his two chase wins have come on testing ground.

Having a decent jockey on board in these races is a big advantage and Finny Maguire is no mug. His dad Adrian had seven rides for Bridgy but could only manage three top 4s and I’m sure Finny would love to get one over on his aul lad. At odds of 20/1, Dom of Mary is worth chancing e/w.