2024 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Preview – DS

by Dave Stevos | Mar 11, 2024

2024 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Preview & Tips

We warmed up for Cheltenham with a couple of nice places on Saturday. Lively Citizen ran his heart out but he just got tired after the last hurdle. Misty Grey and Benacre both rewarded e/w support but I’m afraid Taras Halls was only out for a Saturday stroll. Now, it is time for the big one, Dave Stevos’ 2024 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday tips are below.

Weather Watch

First of all, the weather. It was a lovely dry week on the Cotswolds up until the weekend. However, the racecourse seemed to avoid the worst of the rain and by Monday morning, the ground had changed from good to soft, soft in places on Friday to soft all over.

There’s another 5-6mm of rain forecast for Tuesday morning so I would expect the ground to be soft for the Supreme. The rain is due to stop at around midday and after that, it should be pretty dry throughout the week. Hopefully we get a bit of now fabled ‘Spring Ground’ by Thursday.

Bet Responsibly

It is important to remember that the Cheltenham Festival is a marathon, not a sprint. Sometimes it can be a proper slog, just like it was for us at last year’s meeting. There are twenty eight races, tips, rumours and ‘stable info’ are flying around and more often than not, the pints are flowing. It is easy to lose the run of yourself, so keep to your usual stakes and limits and most importantly of all, enjoy the racing.

1.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

No Ballyburn, so no odds on Mullins’ hotpot to start proceedings. However, what we do have is six Mullins’ horses in a twelve runner field and he provides the top two in the market. The front running grey Tullyhill is the mount of stable jockey Paul Townend and he heads the betting at 3/1.

He has made all the last twice, a maiden at Naas and a Listed Novice at Punchestown and he certainly won’t mind soft ground. In the latter race he was allowed to do what he wanted in front but surely, his opponents won’t let him have such an easy time of it on Tuesday.

Competition For The Lead

Firefox lowered the colours of Ballyburn from the front at Fairyhouse in December. Now, he had a fitness edge that day but it still looks proper form and he didn’t stay the 20f trip at Naas last time. Mistergif sports a first time hood and he is another one that went from the front the last day.

Tellherthename hails from the red hot Ben Pauling yard but he is a gelding that wants nicer ground than he’ll get here. Mystical Power is another in a first time hood but unlike many of his rivals, he has been ridden with patience the last twice. Impeccably bred (Galileo x Annie Power) but the hood will need to sharpen up his jumping if he is to win this.

Stamina test

With so much early pace likely, this may well turn into a stamina test on this ground. That will suit Slade Steel more than most. He’s only running here to swerve Ballyburn and if he were mine, I’d have gone for the Baring Bingham. That being said, he’s guaranteed to stay having already won a G2 over 20f on heavy and he was the clear second best in that DRF G1 that Ballyburn won so easily (7L back to the third).

Jeriko Du Reponet has won a P2P, as well as all three of his hurdle runs. He was workmanlike last time at Donny but this stiffer test will suit better. However, Nicky Henderson’s recent form figures read 555P2P1P so you really couldn’t be confident about what version of Jeriko Du Reponet is going to turn up.

Outsiders

All the aforementioned horses (apart from Tellherthename) are priced up at 12/1 or shorter. Favour And Fortune is 33s and Alan King has previous in this race. The form of his second at Exeter has since been boosted by the winner but even though he has won on heavy, I think he wants better ground than he’ll encounter here.

With a few firms paying four places and with this looking like a pretty open renewal, maybe Kings Hill can outrun his near triple figure odds for the Gilligans. The 6yo son of Kingston Hill has progressed with every run and I thought he was a massive eyecatcher when finishing 3.25L behind No Flies On You at Leopardstown.

A Lot Wrong

He did an awful lot wrong that day (keen/iffy jumping) but he finished off his race really well and he got to within 1.5L of the ill fated, but very highly thought of, D B Cooper. The form of his win last time out at Thurles certainly wouldn’t be good enough to win this but he could only beat what was in front of him and the heavy ground probably didn’t play to his strengths.

The likely strong pace in today’s race should help him to settle better than he did at Leopardstown and hopefully, he will jump more fluently in this smaller field. If Jack Gilligan is within touching distance of the leaders as they turn for home, hopefully Kings Hill can stay on late and maybe nick a place at 100/1 (four places available).

If I were backing one at the top of the betting, I’d probably go with Slade Steel but we are not in the business of backing market principals. Hopefully Kings Hill gives us a decent run for our money.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Tip: Kings Hill e/w @ 100/1 (4 places)

2.10 – Arkle Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

After his desperate effort behind Fact To File last time Gaelic Warrior has been labelled as ‘enigmatic’ & ‘unreliable’. That’s a bit harsh considering his career form figures for Willie Mullins up to that run read 21112111. He’s hardly Goshen, but the worry for his backers is that he is 0/2 at this festival.

He dotted up previously at Limerick, beating Il Etait Temps by 5.5L. The runner up landed the Irish version of this race on his next start at Leopardstown and he’ll be re-opposing today.

Another Mullins’ horse at the head of the betting is Hunters Yarn. He fell on chase debut at Fairyhouse before winning an ordinary race back at the same track. However, like Il Etait Temps and Gaelic Warrior, he has failed to win on his sole previous run at Cheltenham.

Course And Distance Form

On better ground, I’d strongly fancy My Mate Mozzie for this. He won over C&D in October on good ground and he chased home Found A Fifty on yielding at Leopardstown in December. Gavin Cromwell has a fine record at this meeting but this lad is probably a stone better on decent ground compared to soft.

The one I’ll take a chance on at a sporting e/w price is Matata. Sam Twiston Davies prefers him to Master Chewy and I agree with his choice. On New Year’s Day he ran a blinder over this C&D on heavy ground, going down by 1L to Libberty Hunter. He was conceding 11lbs to the now 139 rated winner and he is the 7/1 favourite for the Grand Annual.

Jumped Left

On his last start at Lingfield (16f gd/sft) Matata finished 0.5l behind JPR One, a 9/1 shot here. It must be said he did jump markedly to his left on occasion, especially at the first fence, but in the latter stages of the race his jumping straightened up. He stuck to the task really well after the last and though the winner was probably idling, he did close strongly on him on the run to the line.

This race looks like it will be run at a furious gallop. Gaelic Warrior, Hunters Yarn, Found A Fifty and Quilixios all like to be up there, just like Matata. However, I think the Twiston-Davies’ horse’s chase form, especially that handicap run here off 143, is not far off what any of the others have achieved in here, yet he is a far bigger price.

If Sam Twiston-Davies can get him into a good early position close to the inside, Matata can hopefully make a bold bid and nick a bit of e/w money at odds of 20/1.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Tip: Matata e/w @ 20/1

2.50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier)

Trelawne is a horse I rate very highly but his price has well and truly gone. The booking of Harry Cobden is eye-catching but so is the fact that David Bass jumped ship to ride Chianti Classico. I think Trelawne is a Grade 1 horse on his day but he hasn’t put it all together yet and this will be his toughest test to date. It wouldn’t surprise me if he wins but there’s not much juice left in his price of 8/1.

The one I have come down on is the Grand National entered Famous Bridge. We know for certain he’ll relish the soft ground and his stamina is guaranteed. The 8yo has failed to complete the last twice but he had a valid excuse when pulling up on unsuitably good ground at Doncaster on his penultimate start.

Unseated

Nicky Richards’ charge was still travelling nicely last time at Haydock (28f hvy) when unseating Sean Quinlan six out. He was running off 139 and while it was too early to say whether he would have won, he certainly looked like he would have been in the mix.

This horse has yet to run at Cheltenham but he has loads of form on left handed tracks. At 24f or further on soft/heavy ground he has chase form figures of 411U and he’s still a relatively young horse, so there could be more improvement to come. Vintage Clouds won this for Trevor Hemmings at big odds in 2021, hopefully Famous Bridge can follow in his hoofsteps at odds of 16/1.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Tip: Famous Bridge e/w @ 16/1 (6 places) NAP

3.30 – Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)

No Constitution Hill in this year’s Champion Hurdle but thankfully, we have eight runners. State Man is 1/3 and I can’t argue with those odds. He’s a proper two mile hurdler, he’s won here before and he found just Constitution Hill too good in last year’s Champion Hurdle. You can pick holes in his Irish form this year but even so, he is the one they all have to beat.

Irish Point hacked up over 23f last time out and while he has 16f form, he would be going to the Stayers’ if I owned him. Surely, he won’t have enough pace for this test. Nicky Henderson runs three, the best of which looks to be Iberico Lord. He looked a nice horse at Newbury last month but the well being of Henderson’s string remains a huge worry.

Wide Open

I think this is absolutely wide open as far as the places go. Many ‘experts’ were suggesting that Lossiemouth should run here. Last year, Zarak The Brave got to within 4L of her at Fairyhouse and 1.5L of her at Punchestown so you could argue that he is overpriced at 22/1. I do think he would like better ground though.

The one that looks most overpriced is Colonel Mustard. He’s been put in as the rag here at 66/1 but if you look at his two mile, Graded hurdling form he shouldn’t be that big. He is officially rated 146, which on paper won’t be good enough. However, before Lorna Fowler decided to abandon graded races and go handicapping, he had form figures of 32233 over 16f in Grade 1s & Grade 2s.

State Man Form

He finished 9L behind State Man at Punchestown last year in a Grade 1 and he was only 3L behind him when they met in the County Hurdle in 2022 at this track (getting 4lbs). He has 1.5L to find with Nemean Lion on their meeting at Wetherby (15f hvy) and on this slightly better ground over a furlong further, he could easily turn that around.

In what looks a pretty weak renewal of the Champion Hurdle, I am going to take a punt on Colonel Mustard at odds of 66/1.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Tip: Colonel Mustard e/w @ 66/1

4.10 – Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

The only thing that can stop Lossiemouth here, barring accidents, is if she doesn’t stay 20f. She was ultra impressive when hacking up here last time (17f gd/sft) and she also won on soft at the same trip at last year’s festival. On pedigree, she should stay and if she does, she’ll win.

Thanks to her short odds of 4/6, there’s a bit of e/w value to be found. At around 25/1 last year’s Grade 2 Novice winner at this meeting, You Wear It Well, could outrun her odds. She beat the 141 rated Magical Zoe by nearly 3L in that race, her only previous run at Cheltenham on soft ground.

Seasonal Return

She looked better than ever when beating Luccia on her seasonal return at Wetherby (16f sft) but heavy ground was against her in the Fighting Fifth at Sandown. Since then she ran with credit over 24f behind Marie’s Rock at Doncaster on good ground and heavy ground was again an excuse for a bad run at Haydock (19f) on her last outing.

You’d imagine this race has been the long term aim and we know Jamie Snowden can ready one. The drop back to 16f rates as a huge plus for her and there’s every chance she could get an uncontested lead here. The most likely scenario is that Lossiemouth comes there on the snaff and picks her off late but You Wear It Well could hang on for a place. At odds of 25/1, it is worth chancing that she does.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Tip: You Wear It Well e/w @ 25/1

4.50 – Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Premier)

We are already in a decent position for this race. We backed Ose Partir non-runner no bet at odds of 33/1 in our ante-post handicap preview and he’s now into 12/1. Ricky Doyle has been booked for the ride and he is 1/3 with a place for the Mulryan’s and he’s 6/61 with 13 top 4s for Brassil. Hopefully he can get Ose Partir settled and into the places.

With a maximum field of 22 runners there’ll always be the chance of misfortune, so I’m going to back another one here. The one that makes most appeal at bigger odds is An Bradan Feasa at around 25/1. He is a course winner on soft and his other run at this track resulted in a G2 second behind Burdett Road.

Long Term Plan

I’d imagine this race has long been in trainer Jack Jones’ sights and I wouldn’t pay too much heed to his below par run at Musselburgh last time behind Liari. He was getting 2lbs from that rival in that Listed race and he gets 8lbs here, so he is weighted to finish much closer to the Nicholls’ horse this time.

He’s already beaten Milan Tino off level weights on the Old Course here and they meet on identical terms. The French raider is 13/2 fav today, An Bradan Feasa is 25/1. At those prices, I know who I would rather be on.