2024 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Preview – DS

by Dave Stevos | Mar 12, 2024

2024 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Preview & Tips

Much more rain fell than was forecast on Day 1 and it only suited our NAP Famous Bridge. Matata ran a blinder to finish fourth, as did Colonel Mustard to finish fifth but they didn’t get the e/w money. Ose Partir was keen so I doubt he would have done anything if he stood up and An Bradan Feasa didn’t get home on the ground. Kings Hill hated it too but at the end of the day, at least we saved the blank. We go again on Day 2, Dave Stevos’ 2024 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday tips are below.

Weather Watch

So much for soft ground. A deluge overnight into Tuesday morning meant it was heavy for the Supreme and it is unlikely to be much better today. Another afternoon where horses that relish testing ground should come to the fore. Hopefully we can find some of them.

1.30 – Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

Between 2004 and 2019 the average sized field for this contest was 14.5. Since 2020, that figure has dropped to 9.2, a fall of over 36%. This year the bare eight will run and five of them (62.5%) are trained in Closutton. What a sorry state of affairs.

Ballyburn is the 8/15 favourite and to be honest, in the words of Kevin Keegan, I would love it if he got beat. If Slade Steel had turned up here that may have happened but Henry De Bromhead thought otherwise and ran him in the Supreme and won that instead.

Ballyburn is top rated by some distance & his stamina is assured. He’s been backed into 8/15, he’s the choice of Paul Townend and it would be a major shock were he to taste defeat.

Ground Concerns?

However, I would be slightly concerned about the ground for him. Yes, he won a maiden on ground with heavy in the description but he is by Flemensfirth and his progeny are often at their best on sounder surfaces.

If you look at his stats as a sire, he has a winner to runner strike rate of 24% on heavy compared to 30% on soft and 29% on good to soft. I’m probably clutching at straws but that’s what you often have to do at Cheltenham if you want to take on a Mullins hotpot.

Bred For Heavy

Handstands has done his winning under rules on good and soft but he is certainly bred to handle this ground. His half-brother Kilconny Bridge absolutely loved deep ground, his grand dam won a heavy ground Thyestes in 2003 and Pauling’s charge has already won on ground with heavy in the description, a 24f point to point on his debut.

He gave Taras Halls, our Saturday NAP, 7lbs and a 7 length beating at Newcastle in January. Taras Halls then finished 6L behind Handstand’s stablemate Champagne Twist at Doncaster off levels and that horse won the Imperial Cup at the weekend.

Last time out, the son of Getaway lowered the colours of the 139 rated G1 winner Jango Baie at Huntingdon on soft. The UK handicapper doesn’t rate that form too highly and he has given Handstands a rating of 136.

That leaves him with 21lbs to find with Ballyburn so on paper, it looks a thankless task. However, as I said earlier there’s a small chance the fav might not relish the ground and it could slow a few of the others down too. The rain cost Tellherthename all chance in the Supreme on Tuesday, hopefully it will work in favour of Pauling’s charge this time. At 14/1, Handstands is the e/w selection.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Tip: Handstands e/w @ 14/1

2.10 – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

Fact To File has been hyped to the max ahead of this 3 mile novices’ chase. Trained by Mullins and owned by JP, he is 10/11 to win his third race in a row. Gaelic Warrior didn’t do the form of his last run at Leopardstown any harm in the Arkle but he was miles off his best that day.

In that race, and on his previous start at the same track at Xmas, he jumped right a few times. He was also a beaten favourite at the Festival last year and he was beaten on his only start on heavy by American Mike. In my opinion, he is worth taking on.

Giovinco Overpriced

If Stay Away Fay is a 7/2 shot, there is no way Giovinco should be 22/1. I put him up as a horse to follow this year and he has won two of his five chase runs. Yes, he has failed to complete twice but the first time he just made a silly mistake and then the ground was probably too quick for him at Kempton when he pulled up.

At Sandown in December (24f sft) he was only 1.5L behind Stay Away Fay despite being hampered. Lucinda Russell’s charge gained a confidence boosting win in a match at Newcastle (20f hvy) a month ago and it’ll be similar ground here.

I also think Sandor Clegane is capable of running a big race here but I am convinced that Giovinco is up to this level and his form figures when going left handed over fences read 11. At odds of 22/1, he is the each way selection.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Tip: Giovinco e/w @ 22/1 NAP

2.50 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Premier)

In 2022 Commander Of Fleet made the final cut in my stats based preview for the Stayers’ Hurdle. He ended up swerving that, running in this instead, and he won at odds of 50/1. Of course, I didn’t put him up for that race after backing him e/w for the Stayers’ and I am not going to make the same mistake twice.

De Capo Glory made the final four in this year’s stats preview for the Stayers’ and just like Commander of Fleet, he pitches up here instead. Trained by Cork based Padraig Butler, he gets in off a mark of 145 but with his jockey Darragh Allen’s claim, he’s effectively running off 138.

Cork Win

He has ridden this lad ten times before and he has been on board for two of his four career wins. The last of those victories came at Cork (20f sft/hvy) in January where he beat Rebel Early by a head off 135.

Last month De Capo Glory warmed up for this with an excellent effort in a G2 at Navan (21f hvy). He had the likes of Galvin, Ashdale Bob and Delta Work behind and he was only 0.75L behind Beacon Edge who finished second. With Allen’s claim, he’ll be 4lbs better off with him here.

Ground Ideal

This 7yo son of Fame And Glory will enjoy the testing ground. He has career form figures of 134131 on soft/heavy and at 20f/21f his form figures read 1123. He’s only had ten runs over hurdles so he could still improve further and his dam is a full sister to the classy operator God’s Own and the three time Cheltenham winner, Ginny’s Destiny.

This will be a first ever runner for Padraig Butler at Cheltenham. He has applied cheekpieces, which is interesting, and if they eke out a bit more improvement, he could go very close here. He’s a prominent racer which will hopefully help him stay out of trouble and if his jockey doesn’t use up too much petrol in the first half of the race, hopefully De Capo Glory can reward e/w support.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Tip: De Capo Glory e/w @ 33/1 (6 places) NB

3.30 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1)

El Fabiolo is all the rage for this year’s Champion Chase. Willie Mullins’ winning machine won the Arkle here last year and he is bidding to follow in the hoofsteps of his stablemate Energumene by winning this race. He’s 8/15 to give Willie his third win in a row in this and he’s banker material for many.

However, I think this is by far the stiffest task he has faced to date. He’s been winning in small fields in Ireland but even in those relatively uncompetitive races, his jumping has not been perfect. The son of Spanish Moon has a tendency to throw in a mistake or two and with Edwardstone likely to force a fast pace here, his jumping could come under big pressure.

Stable Form

Jonbon is 7/2 but how could you back him after watching Nicky Henderson’s horses on Tuesday? The form of the stable is extremely worrying for his supporters. Edwardstone is the horse that could make or break El Fabiolo. If he goes from the front and jumps as well as he did last time, then we’ll find out whether the fav’s jumping is up to the task. He’ll love the ground too and he is too big at 15/2.

However, I am going to take a chance on Captain Guinness at double figure odds. He chased Energumene home last year and he’ll be suited by sitting off a fast pace. The ground will be right up his street and Henry De Bromhead’s horses are flying so far.

Rachael Blackmore, already off the mark with Slade Steel, rides and I am hoping she takes her time on him and rides him to finish off his race. If they go too quick early, winning may not be out of the question but he definitely has enough ability to finish third. So at 12/1, back Captain Guinness e/w.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Tip: Captain Guinness e/w @ 12/1

4.10 – Cross Country Chase (Class 2)

Not a race I’ll be getting involved in and it may not even go ahead. No bet.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Tip: No bet

4.50 – Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Premier)

We have already backed Dancing On My Own for this ante-post but I was hoping for better ground. The fact that Rachael Blackmore prefers him to Maskada is a plus but when he ran in this on heavy two years ago he finished well beat on heavy ground. Hopefully he runs a big race for us but it makes sense to go in again on one that won’t have any issues with the underfoot conditions.

The one that fits the bill is the bottom weight, The King Of Prs. Trained by Gavin Cromwell, he gets in here of 132. That’s the same mark off which he ran a blinder at Lingfield in January when finishing 3L behind the evergreen First Flow.

Relishes Heavy

That run came on soft ground and this horse is probably even better on heavy. His last two runs on bad ground saw him land novice chases at Wexford (16f hvy) and Limerick (17f sft/hvy) and he is 3/4 on ground with heavy in the description throughout his career.

Sean Flanagan will take the ride and he has form figures of 411 on board this son of Dansant. His last win at Limerick saw him give 7lbs and a 2L beating to Irish Blaze, a horse now rated 131.

His stablemate Path D’Oroux is shorter and he is the mount of stable pilot Keith Donoghue but that doesn’t mean he is the first string. He’ll be at his limit to do 11 stone for this race, so even if he wanted to ride The King Of Prs, his weight wouldn’t allow it. His last run was likely just a spin to ready him for this and with ground to suit, he is the e/w selection at odds of 25/1.