2026 Austrian GP Betting Preview

Check out James Punt’s 2026 Austrian GP betting preview below.

2026 Austrian GP – Barcelona Reflections

The Barcelona GP was a betting disaster and we are now in a bit of a hole. There were ten bets for Barcelona and ten losers with a total loss of -11.50 points. That takes the season to date tally to -12.55 points. Not a single bet won in the last two races. I used to be quite good at this. Must be the heat.

At least Barcelona was a fairly informative race and the scene is now set for the remainder of the European swing. There is a lot happening right now and a lot to get through, so this is a bit on the long side, but necessary.

Has the momentum swung away from Mercedes? Are Ferrari now the form team? Is Hamilton now in the frame for the World championship? Who killed Cock Robin?

Team By Team Outlook

Mercedes 

Some may say the virtual safety car handed Hamilton the race win in Barcelona, but tellingly, not Mercedes. The drivers and team boss said that the Ferrari was the better car. The Mercedes got the better start but was never able to shake off Hamilton and as the race went on, Ferrari’s pace improved. Yes, Hamilton would have had to pass a Mercedes to win, but Mercedes have said that they wouldn’t have been able to hold Hamilton off.

Mercedes suffered with time lost as their two drivers were racing each other, which kept Hamilton in striking distance. Mercedes also made a strategic error.

Hamilton had started on the soft tyres, which forced him to stop earlier, behind Russell. Mercedes than decided to call in Russell, on medium tyres, to cover the Ferrari. Russell immediately questioned that call. He had been looking after his tyres, knowing he was two stopping and there was still performance left in them. That was time wasted by copying Ferrari.

Russell than had to try and do a longer run on his second stint, while Ferrari pressed on with a three stopper. Ferrari had made the right call, the well timed VSC was just the icing on the cake.

Power Unit Problems

Antonelli was able to catch and pass Russell, but then his car just stopped, as is becoming a common occurrence with the Mercedes power units. No points scored for Antonelli and that allowed Hamilton and Russell to close the gap in the Drivers’ Championship. Hamilton is now 41 points behind, Russell 50. However, once again, Russell was outpaced fair and square by Antonelli, who wasn’t having his best weekend.

The Italian still has a big lead and there are fifteen more races scheduled, but we may only get thirteen. The last two races are due to be in Qatar and Abu Dhabi. If the Iranians are still lobbing drones across the Persian Gulf, then those two won’t be run. The FIA have said that Las Vegas will not be the final race of the season, so they must have a contingency plan to stage at least one more race somewhere else.

Three Problems

Mercedes have three problems. Their two drivers are costing each other time by racing each other. There is no number 1 and number 2 driver system. It was a problem for McLaren last year and the Norris vs. Piastri battle very nearly let Verstappen steal the title from under their nose.

Russell is just not able to live with Antonelli’s pace. He can talk about some circuits not suiting his style and so on, but even when he was comfortable (and Antonelli struggling), it was Antonelli was going to the leading Mercedes, until his battery pack failed.

Reliability

The second problem is reliability. Both Russell and Antonelli have now suffered DNFs due to their power units shutting down. We have only had seven GPs and Mercedes have had two retirements for drivers who were leading or second the race. That is a lot of points dropped.

The team say they have now narrowed down the problem to a specific part of the battery pack. They are working on a fix and if they are right, they can hope to regain reliability without a wholesale redesign of the power unit,

The third problem is that they are being out developed by Ferrari, who have a much more reliable, and now a race winning capable car. Mercedes are having to spend resources trying to find a fix for their power units, Ferrari can continue with their planned developments.

What looked like a coronation for Mercedes in 2026, has suddenly become difficult.

Ferrari 

Barcelona is a very good test of an F1 car. Ferrari turned up with a big upgrade package. New front wing, new floor, new side pods, new diffuser and new front wheel hubs. It was a very different car and they achieved the holy grail of reducing drag and increasing downforce. The car is now much more aerodynamically efficient and fantastic in the corners, and not just the slower ones.

It is also quite reliable. Ferrari have suffered just two DNFs. One was a result of a crash for Leclerc in Monaco, the other a power steering issue for Leclerc in Spain. Lewis Hamilton has finished every race, all in the top 6, and his last three have seen him finish 2nd, 2nd and 1st.

Back In Comfort Zone

The development path of the car, and the end of the ground effect era, has got Hamilton back in his comfort zone. On the other side of the garage, Leclerc is rattled. He switched to Hamilton’s braking set up in Barcelona but crashed in Q3 and started from 10th place. His race ended when he lost power steering in the dying laps and he retired the car.

Leclerc’s last three races have seen results of 4/DNF/15. That means Hamilton has outscored Leclerc by 41 points in the last three races, and Leclerc is now 40 points behind.

The most impressive change in Ferrari’s performance was a big improvement in tyre management. They had struggled with above averaged tyre degradation, but not in the very testing conditions in Spain. They ran an aggressive three stop strategy and had they tried that pre-upgrade, they just would have destroyed the soft tyres. Instead, they were taking lumps out of Mercedes.

Increased Airflow

Their new front wheel hubs have improved airflow through the hubs, which keeps the tyre carcass cooler, helps cool the brakes and improves airflow further down the side of the car. It may have been their master stroke. It will also be very helpful in the very hot conditions expected this weekend.

The missing piece in the Ferrari jigsaw, is the power unit. It is down on power compared to Red Bull’s and Mercedes’ units and they have two in season upgrades allowed under the ADUO regulations. The rumour mill says that they are ready to introduce an upgraded unit from this weekend.

Ferrari are looking for more power. The new unit is expected to produce 4-5 additional horsepower. The second upgrade later in the season is expected to include a bigger turbo. The small turbo was good for fast starts, but the other teams have closed that gap, so they might as well bin it.

Same Spec

Existing regulations mandate that power unit manufacturers must supply their customers with the same spec that they themselves are running. This could be a problem for Ferrari, as they would have to manufacture enough new units to cover Haas and Cadillac. However, the customer teams do not have to choose to accept the new designs. That seems illogical. The new units are improved and more powerful, so why not use them?

A redesigned unit may have different dimensions and just fitting them into a customer car may not be possible without changes to the car. The customer may just say that they will stick with the old unit, until they can make the changes needed.

Modest Upgrade

The upgraded units are expected to show a modest power upgrade of 4-5 horsepower. Not massive and if it costs Haas resources just to make changes to their car to fit it in, they might think the resources are best employed elsewhere.

Ferrari’s fuel supplier are also introducing a new fuel specification for the upgraded units. That is expected to give another 2 horse power. All in, the improvements should give Ferrari an additional 0.10 second a lap around the Red Bull Ring. Not a night and day improvement, but over a race distance, that is around seven seconds, and that can be the difference between winning and losing.

Talking of which, if Ferrari can win this weekend, it would be their 250th Grand Prix win. An upgraded power unit is only going to help their chances, but it is not 100% definite that it will be introduced this weekend. It is said that it may only being signed off on Friday and not fitted until Saturday, so watch this space is the order of the day.

McLaren 

We have learned that McLaren’s tyre whispering qualities of last year have gone. The conditions in Barcelona, with high tyre degradation, looked set to play to McLaren’s strengths, but that quality was absent. The team admitted as much after the race. This generation of cars has taken away that ability to look after their tyres better than the rest. They are not any worse, but there is no advantage.

In Canada it was too cool to get the front tyres warmed up, but in Barcelona it was too hot. That big, sweet spot they had last year, meaning their cars went well in all conditions, is absent in these new cars.

Front Wing

McLaren also opted to finally put their new front wing into play in Barcelona, but there was no great improvement. The mighty McLaren development advantage of the last couple of years has stalled. A significant upgrade that hasn’t resulted in a step forward.

The car’s reliability has been poor. Three DNS and two DNFs. Norris retired in Canada with gearbox failure and in Monaco with the dreaded Mercedes battery pack failure.

The McLaren is podium capable but its performance has been hard to call. The car just isn’t as competitive as it has been for the last two years.

Red Bull Racing 

They may have built a great power unit, but the whole package is lacking. As Verstappen said, you can’t make a car good by changing setups alone. They are always chasing something that isn’t there. The car is not the gold standard. Tyre degradation is an issue especially in hot conditions, which is on the menu this weekend.

This is Red Bull’s home race, so we can expect some upgrades. Any fixes will have to address their high-speed cornering deficit and tyre degradation. We will find out in free practice if they have made any progress. The story is that Red Bull have a ‘major upgrade’ to include weight reduction and aerodynamic improvements.

The team believe that there is still quite a lot of low hanging fruit development wise. We are still in the early days of a new era of regulations and big gains have already been made by Ferrari. The others should also be able to make performance gains too. The Red Bull’s diet program is expected to see the car finally meet the minimum weight limit for the first time this season. Less weight, more speed and a decent gain.

Poor Atmosphere

The mood in the Red Bull Camp is said to be low. Verstappen is pretty much the last man standing of the team that was so successful. Most of the rest have gone and he is expected to make a decision about his future during the summer break. He wants a winning car, and Red Bull are some way off that right now.

This first upgrade package is a big one for Red Bull, and Verstappen’s future. If it doesn’t deliver, he is likely to be the biggest rat to jump ship, unless he is tempted by a reported huge pay rise.

That the FIA deemed the Red Bull Ford power unit was the most powerful has thrown a bit more pain their way. Red Bull Ford will not be permitted a power unit upgrade, while Mercedes get one and Ferrari, Audi and Honda get two. Audi have done one of theirs already, Ferrari have their first coming on this weekend.

Red Bull are trying to get the ruling changed, but to no avail, so far. The FIA have only said that they will check their evidence again, but the button was pressed and the first upgraded units are rolling out in their opponents’ cars.

Alpine 

Finished 7th and 10th in Barcelona, having been very poor in qualifying. They were helped by the race attrition, but clearly the car has better race pace that qualifying pace.

They are ‘only’ 32 points behind Red Bull Racing in the Constructors’ Championship, largely thanks to the very surprising decision to reinstate Gasly’s third place in Monaco. The length of the pit lane had been mismeasured by the FIA and that is why drivers were getting penalties for speeding, when they were not. Because Gasly never served his penalties during the race, his 10 second penalty was rescinded. Those that did serve their penalties in the race, didn’t get anything back.

It will be worth watching out for Alpine this weekend as they are bringing a significant upgrade package. They have proved to be reliable, despite running the troubled Mercedes’ power units, but who is to say, they are not due some trouble.

High speed corning has been a weakness, and if this upgrade can address that, They could go well again this weekend.

Racing Bulls 

Have been picking up good points in the last three races (26 in the GPs alone), and have had back to back double points finishes. Like Alpine, Racing Bulls are being rewarded for their reliability.

Lawson was sixth on debut here last year, and of course it is sort of a home race for them too. More points have to be on the menu. They are battling with Alpine for the minor points, but while their one lap pace is good, their race pace is not as good as Alpine’s.

Racing Bulls are facing the same problem as Red Bull. Their power units will not be allowed an upgrade, so they are going to lose some relative performance compared to the teams that will be introducing, or have already introduced, their upgrades. Audi already have, Ferrari are doing so this weekend, and the rest can’t be far behind.

Haas 

Starting to tail off? Traditionally a team that scores early and then gets out developed. They are a small team and while they have improved in the last year or so, they are still a lower midfield outfit.

The car is hard to predict and while they sometimes find a sweet spot, in race conditions at least, their qualifying pace is poor. Bearman said in Barcelona qualifying that it was the worst car he had ever driven. Three points from the last four GPs tells its own story.

Williams 

After a decent run of results, Williams got a reality call in Barcelona. On a track which is a good measure of a car, they came up short. 16th and 18th in qualifying and despite the high attrition rate, Sainz only finished 12th. A bad car found out. They are likely to struggle here as well.

Audi 

Must be the most frustrated team on the grid. We backed Hulkenberg for points in Barcelona and after qualifying ninth and running in the points, his car was hit by a bizarre retirement. A bit of gravel thrown up by another car landed on his power unit kill switch, which is sited on the outside of the car to allow marshals the turn off the engine in case of emergency. It hit with enough force to shut the car down. End of race. I am still finding new ways to lose a bet.

Audi were the first team to introduce a power unit upgrade in Barcelona. It largely went under the radar but it helped Hulkenberg reach his highest grid position of 2026 in 9th place, and Bortoleto got his second best qualification of the year in 12th. The upgraded unit was designed to improve drivability rather than for more power.

Solid Chassis

The chassis is good, the power unit is powerful but operationally, the team are not great and they have no luck at all. This track should suit, but what new mishap will befall Hulkenberg?

Bortoleto finished in the team’s traditional 11th place in Barcelona. Nine of their drivers classified finishing positions in 2026 have been 11th, 12th or 13th. The team had a double points finish here last year and maybe this is the weekend they get a karmic payback, or did they use up a lifetime’s supply at Silverstone last year?

The team definitely have the potential for a points finish, but they have for a while now and it just isn’t happening.

Cadillac 

Another team set to introduce a significant upgrade this weekend. They had a decent weekend in Barcelona. Perez finished 14th and was close to beating a Williams in qualifying.

Upgrades to the slower cars should result in bigger relative gains, there is a lot of low hanging fruit to pick, so it will be interesting to see how Perez gets on. He is the lead driver at Cadillac and being linked to other teams for 2027. There is no news as to when they will use the new Ferrari power units, but power is not their major problem.

2026 Austrian GP: The Track

A great little track which has produced a lot of drama over the years. It is one of the shortest laps on the calendar at 4.33 km and 71 race laps.

The lap can be divided into two distinct parts. Off the start line, it is a longish drag into the first corner, a sharp right turn. Then there is a long up hill, flat out section, into another sharp right hander.

The cars are now at the highest point on the track, and the downhill half of the lap kicks in. A flat out straight into another sharp right, off camber, before a series of high-speed curves, taking the cars right down to the bottom of the track and a fast, long right hander back onto the start – finish straight.

First Corner

The first corner has seen accidents at the start and there is a wide bail out area for those trying to avoid contact. The second sharp right is crash central. Drivers try and make late braking lunges up the inside and any misjudgement, or the driver in front playing silly buggers, and you get a crash. It happens nearly every year, especially at the start.

Last year it was the turn of Antonelli to let ambition get the better of him, and he drove into Verstappen. Race over for both and a next race penalty for Antonelli. The near hairpin fourth corner is at the end of a downhill straight and again, you get drivers trying a late braking move to overtake. However, the corner is off camber and the car on the outside line loses out on grip and is off into the gravel.

The next series of high-speed downhill curves doesn’t allow for much overtaking, but you can pick up a lot of speed in a good car. The final corner often sees the drivers running out of room and getting into trouble for exceeding track limits.

Mix Of Recent Winners

The last four races here have produced four different winners and four different winning teams. Leclerc for Ferrari in 2022, Verstappen for Red Bull in 2023, George Russell for Mercedes in 2024 and Lando Norris for McLaren in 2025. It isn’t a track that any one team has really dominated on, and there has been no front row lock out since 2018.

Since F1 returned to this track in 2014 (the start of the turbo hybrid era) the pole position driver has won half of the twelve races. The driver starting second has won three, the driver in third has won twice and the driver starting fourth once.

The average attrition rate in the same period is 2.92, with a high of seven and a low of zero (twice). In 2026 the average not classified rate is 4.14.

2026 Austrian GP: The Weather

You may have noticed that most of mainland Europe is suffering with record breaking temperatures. Air temperatures of 40c+ are being recorded. That is in the shade. Think of how hot a tarmac racetrack surface is going to be. In Barcelona, the track was around 48-52 degrees, very high, but it is likely to be hotter still in Zeltweg, high in the Styrian Mountains.

This is third highest track on the calendar after Mexico City and Sao Paulo. Closer to the sun, so it’s bound to be hotter right? Not really, but the UV rays are stronger, hence the tanned faces of people who go skiing in the winter.

In last year’s qualifying here the air temperature was 31c degrees, and the track 47c. It was much the same in 2024, 28c degrees, and the track 48c.

Hot And Sunny

The forecast for this weekend is for wall to wall hot and sunny conditions. Friday will be around 32c degrees, Saturday 34c and race day 35c. The UV factor will be at its maximum and we should expect track temperatures at, or above, what we saw in Barcelona.

Those conditions produced high thermal degradation on the tyres, which combined with the high-speed corners, meant that the teams struggled with trye degradation, to greater or lesser levels.

The nature of this track, with its run of high-speed corners coming down the hill, does put a fair amount of lateral load into the tyres. Physical wear, combined with thermal degradation, means this will be a multiple stop race.

Last Year

Last year Gasly started on the soft tyre and by lap nine he was losing pace relative to the others. This is a 71-lap race, so nine laps is not exactly a deep run. Most drivers opted for a two-stop strategy, but Lawson did make a one stopper and held his 6th place race start to the finish, and Alonso did the same to make up four places and finish seventh. He was helped by Antonelli taking himself and Verstappen out on the first lap.

This year’s Pirellis are a touch softer, making a two, or indeed an opportunistic three stopper, more likely. Safety cars are fairly common here so there can often be a chance to make a cheap stop, as Hamilton did in Barcelona, to gain an advantage.

2026 Austrian GP Summary

We have reached an interesting, but difficult part of the season. The car upgrades are coming thick and fast, and now we are into the power unit upgrades as well. It is hard to say how different a car is going to be from one race to the next, and where the relative performances are going.

For 2026 Austrian GP weekend, we can expect major upgrades for Red Bull (and Racing Bulls?), Alpine and Cadillac. Ferrari will likely introduce their upgraded power units, but whether their customers will have it as well we shall have to wait and see. Others may have more modest upgrades.

Early Pace-Setters

Mercedes have bossed the early part of the season, winning the first six races and taking all seven pole positions. They haven’t got any slower, but they are suffering with unacceptable unreliability. The team believe they have found the cause and are working on a fix, but that is not the work of a moment.

McLaren briefly threatened to join Mercedes at the top. Norris won the Sprint race in Miami and was right in the mix to win the race but since then, they have taken a step back. Spain saw Ferrari finally bringing their big upgrade and they broke the Mercedes race winning monopoly, with Hamilton winning his first race in forty one attempts. It was a win on a track that rewards a good all-round car, which bodes well for the rest of the season.

Lando Norris said after the Barcelona race that if Ferrari get a decent engine, they will ‘embarrass the competition’. He added that their cornering performance is now ‘the class of the field’. This Ferrari upgraded engine is unlikely to be the best out there, but it will be better, and combined with a seriously improved aero package, they are now Mercedes big rival, at least until McLaren can get more, better upgrades.

Lewis Number One

Hamilton has usurped long-time incumbent driver Charles Leclerc as effectively the Ferrari number one. Leclerc looks lost, and that was Hamilton’s position in 2025.

However, it is worth saying that the Red Bull Ring has not been a great venue for Hamilton. He has won here once, in 2016, but in his twelve races here, Hamilton has lost out to his teammate nine times. Leclerc also has one win here (2022) and four other podiums from eight starts. Hamilton’s tail is up, Leclerc’s between his legs, but maybe he can bounce back on a poor track for Hamilton.

Mercedes have their reliability problems, and this is a bit of a car breaking track. Their drivers are taking lumps out of each other and there was a are strategic faux pas in Barcelona.

McLaren, and Norris in particular, have gone well here in the past, but they seem to have dropped back from the front two in recent races. Red Bull have not been able to make any great inroads. They are looking like a third/fourth row kind of car, and their race pace is much the same. This is their home race, and they have a big upgrade coming on stream, so we may have to disregard their recent form as a guide.

Best Of The Rest

Best of the rest? Alpine have been iffy in qualifying, but better in race mode. They will be bringing a proper upgrade this weekend, so we should expect improvements.

Gasly has never finished higher than seventh here in his eleven races, but he has been getting mostly 7th-8th places this season, and his only DNF was accident related. He is using the unreliable Mercede power unit, so that could rear up and bite him, but he has to be a top 6 contender. Not purely on performance, but we have seen some unreliability from the leading teams. That might be the bit of luck he needs for a top 6.

Racing Bulls are not far off Alpine, but maybe a little bit behind in terms of race pace. Like Red Bull, Racing Bulls may have some upgrades this weekend, but they are unlikely to be as big as Alpine’s.

Audi will get a break some time, but I am going skint backing Hulkenberg only to find new ways to lose with him. The Cadillac upgrade will be interesting and they might be worth following in any inter-team match or group bets.

2026 Austrian GP Selections

The first bet is not for this race. A couple of years I ago I went in for McLaren to win the Constructors Championship around this stage of the season. They were third in the championship, but a big upgrade had made them look very competitive and they managed to win it by 14 points from Ferrari.

Could Ferrari be about to do the same thing? There has to be a reasonable chance. A lot depends on how good Ferrari’s power unit upgrade will be (and their second one later in the season), but it will improve their performance. Mercedes will get one upgrade, but that is likely to balanced out by Ferrari’s second upgrade.

How soon Mercedes can address their power unit reliability is another big factor, but there is another threat coming down the pipeline for Mercedes. They introduced a diffuser extension earlier in the season, which prompted Ferrari to question its legality with the FIA. It was deemed to be OK.

Since then, some other teams have started to develop their own version, and the FIA are concerned that there will be a rush of teams spending money to develop their own version. In the end, that just cancels each other out. It is a waste of resources.

FIA Advisory

It is understood that the FIA has already sent an advisory to all teams to say that diffuser extensions will be banned. It will not be with immediate effect, to allow a period of grace for teams to do a redesign, but it will be a modest hit for Mercedes.

Hamilton has a significant lead over Leclerc and he is much happier in these cars than the old ground effect ones. Ferrari will need Leclerc to start making a bigger contribution if they are to close the current 72 point deficit to Mercedes.

It could be that, from here on in, we are going to get a battle between Hamilton and Antonelli for the Drivers’ Championship, and effectively a battle between Russell and Leclerc to see who can contribute the most points to the team pot.

Both Russell and Leclerc are unhappy, and a bit demotivated. Russell is seeing his best chance at a World Championship being stolen by a spotty youth. Leclerc is seeing ‘his’ team being taken over by Hamilton.

I am happy to have a couple of modest bets on Hamilton and Ferrari to turn the tables as the season unfolds.

2026 Austrian GP Tip: 1 point Lewis Hamilton to win the World Drivers’ Championship @ 6.00 with Bresbet (or Betfair exchange)

2026 Austrian GP Tip: 1 point Ferrari to win the Constructors’ Championship @ 9.00 generally available

Austrian GP Selections

The 2026 Austrian GP should be a great race. The track is arguably the best layout in F1 in terms of producing proper close racing with overtakes and accidents. It is unpredictable for that reason, but we haven’t seen a winner from outside the top four on the grid here in the turbo Hybrid era.

This year we have to factor in the higher attrition rates that this season is throwing up, and very high temperatures which will hurt the tyres and cause general cooling problems. And then we have the development wars. Unpredictability on steroids.

For that reason, I am going to hold fire and try and get a better feel for things after free practice. It has been a hard last two races and time to address the slide. Better to take a shorter price but armed with more insight as to the possible pecking order.

-JamesPunt