2026 Dutch GP Raceday Preview

James Punt kept things ticking over with a couple of winners in qualifying yesterday. Check out his 2026 Dutch GP Raceday preview and tips below.

2026 Dutch GP Raceday

So far, the rain has managed to miss the F1 cars on track…and looks set to continue today. There is only a 3% chance of any rain today, which is a bit of a shame as we need something to spice up the show after what was a very boring sprint race yesterday. At least today we have a proper race with pitstops and strategy options to make things a bit more interesting.

The pole sitter has won all five races here, and yesterday’s pole sitter, George Russell, won the Sprint. Done and dusted for Norris today? Maybe not.

Tyre Degradation

The McLarens suffered with rear tyre degradation in yesterday’s sprint race, with the medium compound tyres losing grip from around the tenth lap. The team made some adjustments to the car before qualifying, moving the balance forward to reduce the wear on the rears.

They also changed the camber of the rear tyres to spread the contact pact across more of the rear tyres. That should have hurt their qualifying pace, but they still had just enough. Norris said it gave him a bit more confidence but that we would have to wait and see if it will do the trick over a race distance.

Norris was also quite vocal about the cars slow corner performance and there are plenty of those here. It is all a bit confusing, but I don’t think Norris is super confident about his chances today. Yesterday, Russell said that if he was leading after the first corner, he would win, and he did. That was confidence. Norris can be a bit glass half empty at times, but he does look concerned.

Hope For Norris

The way the sprint race panned out should give Norris some hope. Verstappen said after the sprint ‘race’ that it is very difficult to follow cars on this track. You could see that on the timing screen. A driver would get close to the car in front, get the straight mode advantage and close to around 0.4 seconds behind, and then start to drop back. This went on up and down the grid and it resulted in a snooze fest.

Norris has a quick car and starts from pole on a track where it is hard to follow, never mind pass another car. He comes here on the back of an easy win in Hungary, and will have the advantage of clean air, so he holds some good cards, but he was one of the few drivers to get overtaken in yesterday’s sprint.

Norris is the 2.75 favourite, drifting, but still the favourite. “Looking ahead to the race, I’m not as confident as I was in Budapest. We know our rivals are very strong, and I expect a much bigger challenge tomorrow” said Norris after qualifying. It sounds like he is expecting to be doing a lot of defending.

Mercedes Sitting Pretty

The two Mercedes start 2nd and 3rd, with Russell 3.50 and Antonelli 3.75. Russell had the advantage of clean air in the sprint race and he just managed his tyres and took a comfortable win. He didn’t drive off into the distance, but he didn’t need to, just control the race and look after the tyres. Antonelli made up a place at the start and then closed down Norris, but was unable to overtake him, despite having a faster car at the time.

With pitstops being part of the GP, a faster car can be expected to make up a place around the stops, so long as the stops are executed well. If The Mercs can’t pass Norris on track, they have a chance to do it in the pits.

Floundering Ferrari

Ferrari just didn’t do a great job in qualifying. They were in the mix right up to Q3 but they changed the power unit modes, which didn’t work. They also left their last runs to the very last minute, just as a few drips of rain were hitting the track. The track wasn’t wet and the conditions didn’t really change, but it certainly wasn’t getting any quicker. The track cooled down in those dying minutes and that didn’t help.

Leclerc took a gamble in the sprint race and started on the soft tyre, which helped him to overtake Norris, and the degradation was low. Both drivers have managed to save a new set of the soft tyres for the race, which is not the case for the Mercedes or McLaren drivers. That does give them more strategic options, but starting 5th and 6th is far from ideal on this track.

Leclerc did finish 3rd after starting 6th in 2024, so a podium is possible, but a win would need something very strange to happen. Russell finished 2nd from a 6th place start in 2022. Ferrari are confident about their race pace and they did underperform yesterday.

Red Bull Off The Pace

Red Bull have been off the pace all weekend and even after being able to change the setup of the car, their fortunes didn’t change much in GP qualifying. Lawson did improve, but he doesn’t sound overly confident about his race prospects, saying that holding his position is the most realistic target. The team are bit more positive about their race pace but realise that they are not at the same level as the top 3.

Audi got one car into Q3 with Bortoleto. His race pace is usually decent and he will be looking for more points for the fourth race in a row. Hulkenberg starts from 13th and the driver starting 13th has finished in the points in three of the five races here. However, he just hasn’t been on it this weekend since FP1.

Racing Bulls may be missing Lawson but Lindblad has been Mr. Consistency so far this weekend, finishing every session in 10th place. He is just 1.36 to finish in the points, which is a bit short. Tsunoda did a decent job to qualify 12th.

Alpine Dismay

Alpine will have been very disappointed with Gasly missing out on Q3 yesterday. He had been 8th in the three sessions before that but could only manage 11th in qualifying. The Alpine’s race pace is usually reasonable so he is still in the hunt for more points. Colapinto doesn’t have the upgraded car and did well to make 14th. Gasly should have decent pace, but he has given up valuable track position. He has had three top 10’s here and is a 1.91 shot to do it again.

For Haas, Ocon landed our match bet to beat his teammate in qualifying. Ocon likes the track and is a bit more positive, while Bearman has thrown in the towel in a car that has been completely out developed.

Aston Martin’s resurgence has petered out pretty quickly and the upgraded power unit from Honda is more powerful, but very hard to drive. Williams got Albon into Q2 but they remain hopeless. Cadillac remain the backmarkers and Bottas has beaten his teammate in every session so far, landing our other qualifying match bet.

2026 Dutch GP Raceday Summary

This should be a simple matter of backing the pole sitter and sit back and collect. That is what happens here, even in a wet race. However, McLaren’s struggles in the sprint race yesterday do pose some doubts. It could be that the changes made for qualifying have fixed the problem, but the question has to be, is 2.75 a good enough price to find out?

It is hard to see anyone coming from too far back to get on the podium, never mind win it. The chaotic wet race of 2023 did see the driver starting 12th finishing third, but we aren’t going see rain today. It is usually the top three drivers who end up on the podium. The pole sitter has always won, the driver in 2nd has got three podiums and 3rd placed driver two. Two podiums have come from 6th, one from 5th, one from 4th and that one from 12th in the wet.

Tough Choice

It is hard to choose between Norris and Russell. George Russell looks much more chipper after the break. He has cleared his head, got engaged, and is a happier person. He has not been worse than 3rd in any session this weekend and he felt that he let pole slip through his fingers yesterday.

Antonelli is also tempting, but he hasn’t quite looked at his best this weekend. When he has started from outside the front row in 2026, he hasn’t finished better than 3rd.

Russell starts from the dirty side of the track and that is a worry for him. He needs to be able to hold position to get first dibs on Mercedes’ pitstop strategy. As with so many races, what happens off the line is so important.

Norris has the all-important pole position. It is a big ace card and he has been right on the pace all weekend. There is still a concern about tyre degradation, but the team have taken steps to address that. I will go for history to repeat itself.

Race Pace

Ferrari’s race pace suggests that they could get a podium if things go their way a little. They have those soft tyres to give them a performance advantage at some point. But which driver? Hamilton starts ahead of Leclerc and he has finished ahead of his teammate in four of the five times he has out qualified Leclerc in 2026. Hamilton made quite a few changes to his car after the sprint race and was much happier with it. He is 3.00 to finish on the podium, which is a bit too short.

As for a points finish, Gasly is worth considering at 1.91. He starts 11th, on the clean side of the track and the car has shown better speed with the upgrades. I think he just didn’t put in a great lap in Q2 and the does have top ten pace. He just needs to make up one place.

2026 Dutch GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to win @ 2.85 with Livescorebet

2026 Dutch GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to finish in the points @ 1.91 with Ladbrokes

Unibet have a group bet which looks to have a bit of value in it. Their Group 3 features Tsunoda as the 1.80 favourite, along with Colapinto, Ocon and Alonso.

Tsunoda has been around the 12-13th mark for the weekend so far, as has Colapinto. His 14th in qualifying was his worst placing of the weekend. The Aston Martins are back in the doghouse, while Ocon surely maxed out the Haas to qualify 15th. The last two times he started 15th he finished 16th.

Colapinto’s average finishing position is a couple of places better than his qualifying average. Tsunoda is a bit of an unknown quantity, but this being his first race weekend of the season is not ideal. Colapinto has finished ahead of Ocon in the last five races, and ahead of Alonso in four of the last five, so it looks a bit of a match between him and Tsunoda.

2026 Dutch GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Colapinto to win group 3 @ 3.50 with Unibet

-JamesPunt