2026 Miami GP Sprint Qualifying Preview

We have already posted a comprehensive outright betting preview, read that here. Check out James Punt’s 2026 Miami GP Sprint Qualifying preview below.

2026 Miami GP Sprint Qualifying

It is hard to get too excited after just 90 minutes of the only free practice session of the weekend, but the timing screens had a bit of a different look to them.

We are used to seeing the Mercedes at the top followed by Ferrari or McLaren, but today the fastest car was the Ferrari of Leclerc. He was closely followed by Verstappen. Further back was Piastri in in 3rd, nearly half a second slower. Hamilton was fourth and very close to Piastri.

The leading Mercedes was Antonelli in 5th. However, he did not do a soft tyre qualifying simulation due to a power unit issue. Russell was 6th, 0.79 off the pace, and he did a soft tyre run. He just looked to be slow, and he wasn’t great here last year.

Lando Norris was 7th but his qualifying sim lap was ruined by Albon staying on the racing line into the final corner which forced Norris to run off the track. He had set the fastest first sector, and he looks to have more pace than his 7th place suggests.

In 8th and 11th place were the Alpines of Gasly and Colapinto respectively. Both drivers only ran the hard tyre and they should have more pace to come. The Racing Bulls only ran the medium tyre and they also should be faster on the soft tyre, but they were back in 17th and 21st, so I’m not expecting too much from them.

Upgrades

McLaren have a heavily updated car, but the car with the most new parts is the Ferrari. They are still a bit underpowered but the car does look very quick here. Both drivers ran a bit deep into the final corner, so they can go faster.

Red Bull is another heavily revised car and it is also said to have lost around 7kg in weight, which is worth around 0.25 seconds alone.

Mercedes are saving their upgrades until the Canadian GP and they might just have been jumped by the upgraded Ferrari, Red Bull and McLaren.

Of course, the Mercedes could just have been full of fuel, but Russell was clearly not happy with his car, complaining about the turbo making strange noises. Antonelli looked faster and he will still be a factor in sprint qualifying.

2026 Miami GP Sprint Qualifying Selections

I said that that I would be cautious in the early stages this weekend, but I have changed my mind!

Leclerc was nearly 0.3 faster than the second best driver, Verstappen, and with the usual provisos about it only being practice, and Ferrari usually being a bit more aggressive on Fridays, their heavily upgraded car might just be the car to beat later.

I was impressed, and was impressed in the first three races, by Pierre Gasly in the Alpine. He qualified 7th in the Chinese Sprint qualifying, was 8th quickest in FP1 earlier, on the hard tyre, and he is decent looking value to go one place better and make the top 6.

Group Bets

Unibet are offering sprint qualifying group bets and Group 2 has Norris 1.50, Hamilton 3.25, Verstappen 7.50 and Hadjar 21.00. The standout price there is Verstappen. We only have that one free practice session as a guide after a five week break. Things have changed, the pecking order could well get a shake up and Verstappen was the fastest of those four earlier.

I didn’t hear him complain once about the car, and that is a first in 2026. He was a 7.50 shot earlier, but when I tried to get a bet on, they suspended the market and cut him to 5.50, which is still decent value, just not really good value.

Charles Leclerc 1 point to be fastest Sprint qualifier @ 5.00 generally available

Pierre Gasly 1 point to be top 6 in Sprint qualifying @ 7.00 with Hills and Bresbet

Max Verstappen 1 point to win Group 2 sprint qualifying 5.50 with Unibet

-JamesPunt