2026 Miami GP Sprint Race Preview

Unfortunately, sprint qualifying didn’t go well for us but hopefully, we can bounce back. Check out James Punt’s 2026 Miami GP Sprint Race preview below.

2026 Miami GP Sprint Race

It was a three point loss from the Sprint qualifying bets yesterday. Charles Leclerc went into Q3 as the 1.40 favourite, but he said that the car just didn’t work as well on the soft tyres.

Pierre Gasly only made it to P10, saying that he was never comfortable with the car and was suffering from a lot of wheel spin. That he was outqualified by Colapinto tells its own story, and it was a disappointing performance.

Max Verstappen just didn’t show the kind of pace he had in FP1. The good news is that the McLaren is living up to the upgrade hype and having backed Norris for the GP win at 13.00, he is now just 3.50.

Last Year

Today we have the Sprint race, followed by the GP qualifying session. Last year the Sprint race had Antonelli on pole from Piastri and Norris. The race saw heavy rain before the start and it was marked by Piastri and Antonelli being very close into the first corner, and Antonelli was maneuvered off the track and he dropped back to fourth. He later crashed into Verstappen in the pits and finished in eight place.

The track dried, forcing everyone to change to slick tyres and Norris got lucky with the safety car (again) being deployed as he was making his pit stop. That promoted him to first place, where he finished, ahead of Piastri.

Dull Affair In 2024

The first Miami Sprint race was in 2024 and a little more representative of what we might get today. It was a dry race, so no pitstops were required. It was a bit dull to be honest.

There was a first corner crash which took out Norris and Stroll, but the top six on the grid finished in grid order. The Sprint races can be a bit tame, with the drivers aware that the big points are handed out on Sunday, and qualifying for the GP takes place just three hours after the end of the Sprint race. Not crashing is imperative.

Today’s weather in Miami is set to be very hot, with air temperatures of 31c, breezy and only a 10% chance of rain. Tomorrow is a different matter with heavy, ‘disruptive’ rain expected, along with thunder and lightning. There is a chance that the start time may be brought forward, before the worst of the weather arrives.

2026 Miami GP Sprint Race: Team-by-Team

McLaren 

1st and 3rd in qualifying. Norris was 0.222 faster than the leading Mercedes of Kimi Antonelli in 2nd place. Piastri was a shade slower than Antonelli but he is in the mix. The upgrades appear to have worked as expected and Norris goes off as the 2.10 favourite in a place, but most books have him as odds on favourite.

So long as Norris can make a good start, he will then hold the aces. The nearest, fast starting Ferrari is Leclerc back in 4th place, and that should be just about far enough back to keep him out of range of the McLaren. It is a short run to the first corner in any case, which limits Ferrari’s chances to make big gains at the start.

Mercedes 

Antonelli’s run of good form continues and he is on the pace again this weekend, as he was in qualifying last year. It didn’t work out for him in last year’s Sprint race, but he will be a bit wiser at the start this time.

The Mercedes has not been great off the line in 2026 and Antonelli started from 2nd place in the Chinese Sprint race but could only finish 5th. It was George Russell who won from pole, chased home by the two fast starting Ferraris.

Russell has been off the pace so far this weekend. He just doesn’t like the track and struggled here last year. The car was not great on the medium tyre, but was better on the soft. Can they run the soft tyre in the Sprint? With track temperatures hitting 55c, thermal degradation could be too high for the softs to last even the sprint race distance.

Ferrari 

The opposite of the Mercedes, with the Ferrari going very well on the mediums, but losing pace on the softs. I expect them to race with the mediums and they will be quick. Hamilton was quite downbeat about the car, saying it didn’t feel particularly great. Leclerc was fastest in FP1 and was right up there in qualifying, until switching to the mandated soft tyre for Q3.

Hamilton starts from 7th place, Leclerc 4th. The car is good off the line, so there is the potential to make up places at the start, but the layout of the track, with the first corner coming quite quickly after the starting line, may limit their opportunities. The car was still losing ground on the straights but was making up for that in the corners. Their long run pace was good and I expect the two cars to make up some ground.

Red Bull 

Definitely made some progress with the car developments, but it is still not where Verstappen wants it. Hadjar was not happy at all, a full second slower than Verstappen and only qualifying 9th.

The Red Bull has not been good in race starts so far, being one of just three teams to lose places across the first three races. Verstappen feels that they can pull away from the midfield cars, but they do look to have lost some ground to McLaren and Ferrari.

Alpine 

A bit disappointing to be 8th and 10th, especially for Gasly. He said he never felt comfortable in the car and having just the one free practice session didn’t give the team enough time to get the set up quite right.

Starting in the middle of the pack can be a bit risky on the opening lap, but they will be looking to get a point or two on the board, before pressing the reset button for the rest of the weekend. Both drivers saved a set of new soft tyres for the Sprint race, but I am not sure that is as good as it might sound.

Audi 

Just outside of Q3 again. Bortoletto in 11th and Hulkenberg 12th. That is the story of their season. Their race pace is decent, but they are the slowest car off the line and are likely to drop places. Over a full race distance, they can recover, but it is harder to do in a sprint format.

Haas 

A bit disappointing and they look to have lost ground development wise. Bearman was 13th in both sessions, Ocon 16th and 18th in sprint qualifying. The car has not been a great qualifier in any case and their race pace is generally good, so they may well make up places, but unlikely to get into the points today.

Williams

Had looked quite good in FP1 but struggled in qualifying. Sainz qualified 15th and Albon 14th, but he was later demoted to 19th after the stewards finally admitted that he had exceeded track limits in Q1. Both drivers say the car is an improvement, but there are still problems, in Sainz’ case with power deployment. They have the potential to make up places but are too far back to hope for any points.

Racing Bulls 

Not good so far. 15th and 16th. The team have not brought much in the way of developments and they have lost ground as a result. Today’s sprint will be a bit of a practice session.

Cadillac 

Not the worst team and they ran reliably, if slowly. The drivers say that developments have improved the car. Perez went as far to say that he thought Q2 might have been possible but he ended up 19th and nearly 0.4 off the cut off.

Aston Martin 

Didn’t bring any updates for the car and it remains stone cold last. Stroll went off the track early in Q1 and didn’t even set a time. Alonso was ten seconds slower thatn the Cadillac of Bottas.

2026 Miami GP Sprint Race Summary

McLaren came out top in the development battle. It looks close between them, Antonelli and the Ferrari of Leclerc. So long as we get a clean start, I would expect Norris to win from Antonelli, with the other podium place between Piastri and Leclerc. The odds for a Leclerc podium are 1.67, and 1.95 for Piastri, which look about right. Norris is 2.10 to win the sprint, Antonelli 3.50. Again, I am not going to argue with those odds.

Selections

I am not a fan of these Sprint races. Things can happen at the start, but that tends to be that. The drivers are not keen on taking risks and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a repeat of the 2024 Miami Sprint race where the top 6 on the grid finished in the same positions. It is hard to find any value and the sprint is really just a pointer to what might happen in the race tomorrow, but that might be much more down to the weather conditions.

There are two bets that I will place. The first is another group bet with Unibet. Group 2 features Russell as the 1.67 favourite, Hamilton 3.50, Verstappen 4.00 and Hadjar 51.00.

Verstappen is head of the group in terms of track position, starting 5th, from Russell in 6th, Hamilton 7th and Hadjar way off the pace in 9th.

I think Russell is a false favourite. He just hasn’t been quick, just as he wasn’t quick here last year. Maybe it is the heat, but he was 6th in both sessions yesterday and never looked any better. Hamilton was disappointing in the Ferrari, but the car has good race pace, and is quick off the line.

Match Up

To me, this looks more of a match up between Hamilton and Verstappen. The Ferrari is the quickest car in group, if they choose to race on the medium tyre. The quick starting Ferrari can make up places at the start, while both Mercedes and Red Bull have lost places in the race starts so far.

Verstappen starts two places ahead of Hamilton and that may be enough. We have had one sprint race in 2026 and that saw the Two Ferraris starting 6th and 4th, and finishing 2nd and 3rd. Hamilton only made up the one place, Leclerc four.

You can make a reasonable case for either Max or Lewis, but I will go with Max because he starts in front, and that is often enough in these sprints.

2026 Miami GP Sprint Race Tip: 1 point Max Verstappen to win Group 2 @ 4.00 with Unibet

The final selection is a small speculative bet on the fastest lap. The Ferrari was the fastest car on the medium tyre yesterday and if they choose to use the mediums for the sprint, they are right in the mix for fastest lap. They may end up on the more durable tyre when the fuel loads are at their lowest.

2026 Miami GP Sprint Race Tip: 0.5 point Charles Leclerc to set the fastest Lap in Sprint qualifying @ 11.00 with Betfred, BET365, Unibet

There will be a brief update later, an hour or so before qualifying

-JamesPunt