2026 Monaco GP Betting Preview

Check out James Punt’s 2026 Monaco GP outright betting preview below.

2026 Monaco GP

Monaco isn’t much of a racetrack, but it remains a great challenge for the drivers and it has its own charms. One of those charms is the nature of the track, with lots of slow corners and little in the way of straights, it will be very well suited to this new generation of power units.

There will be no chance of the cars running out of power. No need to lift and coast to charge the batteries and the drivers expect this weekend to be the most fun they will have all season. They can drive flat out, just like the ‘old days’.

Power Unit Restrictions

There will be one problem with the new power units, they will be too powerful. Unleashing full electrical power would have the cars running at speeds that would be too fast to be safe. The FIA will impose energy deployment restrictions and the cars will not run active aero over the Monaco Grand Prix weekend, with the FIA deciding that there will be no straight mode zones.

Even with these restrictions, the consensus is that we might see some actual racing and maybe…..overtaking! The cars this year are smaller, lighter and that alone makes them better suited to this short, twisty and slow lap. The proof of the pudding is in the eating of course and we shall just have to wait and see how everything works out, but this could be the best Monaco GP for some time, but that isn’t saying much. At least qualifying, the real highlight of the Monaco weekend, will be a flat out test of driver skill.

2026 Monaco GP: The Track

This is a true street circuit. It is narrow, lined by crash barriers, bumpy and requires extreme precision. The best lap time needs the drivers to get very close to the barriers in places without hitting them. A little glancing blow can be ok but hit the barriers too hard and that can be your session over.

It is a true drivers’ track. The driver makes a bigger contribution to the lap time here, more than at any other circuit. And that goes for bad laps, as well as good ones.

The car is not unimportant, however. With so many slow corners, you want a car that handles well at slow speeds, can hit the kerbs hard without being knocked offline and has good traction out of the corners. Otherwise known as a Ferrari SF26.

Ferrari Should Flourish

If you were to design a track which was perfect for the qualities of this year’s Ferrari, it would look very much like Monaco. Their lack of top end power is not an issue here. It is the best performing car in slow speed corners, and it has excellent traction out of slow corners.

Much is made of the importance of qualifying at Monaco, and for good reason. If you can’t overtake, track position is very important. In the turbo hybrid era, the pole sitter has won six of the eleven races, which is less than places like Barcelona, but it hasn’t been won from outside the top three on the grid.

The attrition rate here can be high. Twice in the last eleven years we have had seven cars not classified, but in the last seven we have had just one DNF four times, including in a wet race. The average is 3.18 in the turbo hybrid era.

The Weather

With back-to-back GPs where the forecast rain never materialised, it seems prudent to just ignore the weather forecasters. Maybe they will get a wet weather forecast right some time this season, but it is quite hard to get Monaco right.

The track sits very close to sea level but the land quickly rises to the hills surrounding the principality. Quite often we get forecasts for rain here that don’t materialise. The clouds and rain can sometimes hang over the hills, but don’t quite reach the track. However, if the weather is coming in off the sea, then it rains and a wet Monaco GP is entertaining, but very difficult for the drivers.

At this time of year, there are an average of 4.1 days per month with more than 1mm of rainfall, so it would be something of a surprise to get rain.

Pleasant

The forecast for the weekend is for pleasant, warm weather, around 23c – 25c all weekend. The chance of morning showers on Saturday, was 55% earlier this week, but that has been reduced to 2% and the highest chance of any rain is said to be around 3% on Friday morning, but the afternoon will be dry for qualifying.

Race day is set to be sunny, warm and with only a very small chance of a shower, less than 5%. Nice and warm and sunny all weekend then.

2026 Monaco GP: Team-by-Team

Mercedes 

Introduced their first upgrade of the season in Montreal. They got a 1-3 in the Sprint and Antonelli won the GP, with a DNF for Russell. They also had pole position in the Sprint and GP. Was the upgrade a success? Yes, but Mercedes want to wait until Barcelona before they quantify by how much.

Montreal was a strange weekend. The Mercedes drivers were tripping over each other, but Russell was having a better weekend before his battery pack overheated and shut down his power unit.

We didn’t get to see them going up against the McLarens on Sunday. McLaren got caught out by the forecast rain not showing up. Starting on inters was a gamble that didn’t work and completely ruined their chances. Norris had split the two Mercedes in the Sprint race, but was that on merit, or because Antonelli was making mistakes?

Best Car

The Mercedes is still the best car, but the jury is still out on by what margin. However, they are likely to be up against it here. Monaco will not reward their power advantage and they should be second best to Ferrari, or maybe even third best.

George Russell has never finished higher than 5th place here, Antonelli was 18th on his F1 debut. He crashed in qualifying and started in 15th place. Russell’s car broke down in Q2 and he started 14th, finishing 11th.

It will be interesting to see how Antonelli gets on this weekend. He was very aggressive in Montreal, too aggressive at times, and that sort of driving will not work well in Monaco. He crashed in qualifying here last year and it is a track that takes time to get on top of. Verstappen had a few crashes here in his formative years, as did Leclerc.

Starting Issues

Mercedes’ start line problems seemed to be less of an issue in Montreal. The team have made changes to address the issue and the drivers were happier, but the layout of the start of the Montreal circuit may have helped them as well.

Toto Wolff was having to get on the radio to try and calm Antonelli down at times in Canada. His blood was up and he was driving aggressively, but without the kind of nous of an experienced driver like Russell. It cost him second place in the Sprint race and it is hard to say what would have happened had Russell not had the retire his car.

The team have had a meeting with the two drivers to lay down the law. Wolff doesn’t want a repeat of the Rosberg – Hamilton battles that sometimes ended in tears. Good luck with that Toto!

Ferrari 

With the track looking to be very well suited to the strengths of the Ferrari, Leclerc is the ante-post 3.00 favourite. He won here in 2024 and was runner up last year. He is the home town hero and may not get a better chance of a win in 2026.

Lewis Hamilton was a happy bunny in Montreal, saying that the car was now to his liking and he can now go on the attack. However, the Montreal circuit has always been good for Hamilton, so how much of his second place was down to the track and how much to the car is not clear.

Leclerc, on the other hand, was very down on himself, saying it was the worst weekend of his career. A return to his home race should see him back in better form.

Three-time winner

Hamilton has won this race three times. The last, and his last podium, was in 2019. In recent years, the Mercedes was never suited to the track. Since the start of the turbo-hybrid era, Hamilton has been beaten by his teammate in six of the eleven races, and outqualified in seven. It isn’t a good track for him, certainly not as good as Montreal.

Leclerc won here in 2024, was second last year, and was on pole in 2021, 2022 and 2024, so it is a good track for the Monégasque. He has had five consecutive podium finishes here for Ferrari.

Fast Starters

Ferrari’s big advantage at the start of the season was their fast getaways off the line. They designed their power unit with a small turbo unit, which is quicker to spin up to full power. However, the FIA changed the starting procedure to allow the other cars a few more seconds to get their turbo’s up to speed before the lights went out.

On top of that, the other teams have worked on their software, clutch calibration and just closed the gap to Ferrari. I wouldn’t say their advantage has gone, but it is smaller. With the run into the first corner here very short, getting on the front row is much more important than making a fast start. There just isn’t enough room to get past.

The Ferrari has excellent slow corner performance and great traction. They will be hard to beat, but they have dropped the ball here before, and nothing can be taken for granted in Monaco. I would be surprised if Leclerc wasn’t leading their charge this weekend. His mood will have been lifted by Ferrari announcing a contract extension for him to stay at Ferrari until 2031.

McLaren 

trailing Mercedes by 113 points, and Ferrari by 41. However, they are better than that, but they have suffered three DNS’ this season and failed to score a point with either car in Montreal.

The McLaren is another car that has been quick off the line, despite using the same power unit as Mercedes. One reason is that they run with a short gear ratio. That makes the car accelerate faster, which shows up clearly with a standing start, but it also means the McLaren accelerates quickly out of slow corners and that will be a useful asset in Monaco. The downside of the shorter gear ratio is shown up on longer straights, but that isn’t an issue around this track.

Upgrade

McLaren introduced their first upgrade in Miami and it worked, moving them ahead of Ferrari in terms of performance there. Norris was second in the Montreal sprint and they locked out the second row for the Sprint and GP.

Their GP was pretty much over when the expected rain didn’t arrive, leaving them on a wet weather tyre and dry track. They pitted for slicks and dropped out of the top 10. Norris was making his way back up the order when he had to retire the car. Piastri crashed into Albon, had to stop for a new front wing, and picked up a 10-place penalty.

The car is good but is likely to have lost some ground to the upgraded Mercedes. However, on this outlier track, they should be back in the podium mix, but Ferrari may still be that bit better.

Red Bull Racing 

They also had a successful upgrade in Miami and Verstappen got his first podium of the season in Montreal, but only after the retirement of Russell and the two McLarens having a mare. His Monaco record is OK, one pole and two race wins. By his standard, not great.

Hadjar finished sixth on debut last year and he was back on form in Montreal. I think that the car will be eclipsed by Ferrari and McLaren, and probably by Mercedes. Another podium doesn’t look likely on merit and Max isn’t at his best on street tracks.

The Red Bull has traditionally had a weakness when it comes to riding the kerbs, and Verstappen referenced that in Montreal. It will be much more of an issue around a lap like Monaco, albeit at slower speeds.

Alpine 

Have scored points in every race in 2026 and a double points finish twice. Pierre Gasly has struggled in the last two races, but Colapinto has stepped up and scored in Miami and Montreal, keeping the team ticking over and 14 points clear of Racing Bulls in sixth.

Gasly has a very good record round this track. Five times he has made Q3 and he has had five top 10 finishes, from seven races. The car’s big weakness is in fast corners, so they should not be inconvenienced around this track.

This weekend will be the acid test for Colapinto. Many are saying that the penny has dropped and he is coming of age. If he can put in clear rounds in qualifying and the race, scoring points, maybe he has. If Gasly can get himself comfortable in free practice, and he has three sessions this weekend, he can look forward to more points.

Racing Bulls 

Lindblad was having a great weekend in Canada. Eighth or ninth in every session and then his car died on the starting grid. He was classified as a non-starter, so our bet on him was void. Lindblad has never raced an F1 car here (he did race in F2), and he is the only driver on the grid not to have done so.

Lawson qualified 8th and finished 9th on his debut last year. They could be in the mix for another point or two, but the competition will be fierce. They will need to hit the ground running as they are up against some track specialists in the mid-field.

Haas 

Just one point scored in the last two races and Ocon has just one point to his name in 2026. Their qualifying pace has been poor this season, and last year. This not a track that you can get away with that very often.

Ocon managed to qualify 8th here last year and finished 9th. The Frenchman has four top 10 finishes in Monaco, and a podium finish, so maybe he can do a bit better this weekend, but qualifying is a problem.

Williams 

Have picked up five points in the last two races. Obviously, they were helped by the struggles of quicker cars in both, but they have made some progress. Carlos Sainz is something of a Monaco specialist. In ten races here he has made Q3 nine times and only missed by one place last year.

He has scored points every time and enjoyed three podium finishes for Ferrari. If the car is good enough, he can deliver. Sainz is the only driver to have made up places in every race in 2026.

Albon has three top 10s from five starts here. Lugging an overweight car around this track won’t be easy, however.

Audi 

Hulkenberg has qualified 11th three times in Monaco, and three times in 2026. However, I feel he would be delighted to do so again this year. The Audi is more suited to tracks where they can put the foot down and make use of their big turbo.

Cadillac 

At least they have two very experienced drivers behind the wheel. Perez, a street track specialist, won here in 2022 and also had a podium for Force India in 2016. Bottas had a podium for Mercedes in 2019, but overall, his record here is not great. Perez to win the match bet?

Aston Martin 

Still no upgrades for the car but the Honda PU is a little better. Adrian Newey is still AWOL and the season from hell continues. They have had back to back 15th place finishes, but that is down to just being still running at the end of the race, when a few others haven’t.

2026 Monaco GP Summary

In a season that has seen Mercedes win every GP and two of the three sprint races, it is strange to see another team heading the betting. Ferrari are 2.00 to be the winning team, Mercedes 3.60 and McLaren 5.00.

In the winning driver market, Leclerc is 3.00 and has been backed ever since the odds went up. Hamilton is 5.50, Antonelli 6.00, Russell 7.00, Norris 8.00, Piastri and Verstappen 13.00.

I went in for Leclerc last week at 3.50. He is a track specialist and in the all-important qualifying sessions, his last five race qualifying positions have been 1/1/3/1/2. He converted just one into a win, however.

Ferrari have dropped the ball before and it looked like Leclerc was going to be cursed at his home race. However, he must have used up his bad luck, he is more mature and Ferrari are not quite as bungling as they have been.

Hamilton has won more races here, but he has had more races and mostly in better cars. Hamilton has lost more often to his teammate than he has beaten them and I don’t see this as a good track for him. He has gone well at tracks where historically he has gone well, and this is not one of those tracks.

2026 Monaco GP Tip: 2 points Charles Leclerc to win the Monaco GP @ 3.00 with Betvictor, Skybet, Betfair, Pokerstars

The value alternative for me is Lando Norris and McLaren. The McLaren is a better all-round car, but this is a more one-dimensional track, and that dimension is in Ferrari’s happy place. But McLaren should still at least be competitive.

Good acceleration will be rewarded and Norris, while not yet being awarded track specialist status, is good here. He just missed out on the top ten on his debut and since then has finished 3/6/9/4/1. He is 2-1 in qualifying against Piastri here as well. Piastri has to enter calculations but I think with a few more years’ experience here, Norris has the edge.

2026 Monaco GP Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to finish on the podium @ 2.20 with Ladbrokes

I can’t remember the last time I had a winning top 6 bet, but I might have a stab at it here. It is a drivers’ track and maybe we will see a track specialist over performing their car and getting a result.

We have the ‘Big Four’ teams who should fill the top eight places, never mind the top six, but the cars, even the top teams, have been far from reliable. Ferrari has got both cars home in the points in every race, but Mercedes has had one DNF, McLaren one DNF (and three DNS) and Red Bull have had three DNFs.

There is a chance that some space could open up for a midfielder to crash the top six. But they will still need to be able to qualify well up the order and know their way round Monaco.

Step On The Gas

Alpine got a podium with Ocon in 2023, with Gasly in 7th. Gasly himself has two top six finishes here, along with a couple of 7th place near misses. He has made five Q3 appearances here (and Alpine five in 2026), with two 7th places in qualifying sessions for Gasly.

The Gas Man finished 6th in China and he fits the bill of a driver who is good on the track and in a car that might be in the mix to take advantage if one or two of the Big Four have problems. I will roll the dice at acceptable odds.

2026 Monaco GP Tip: 1 point Pierrie Gasly to finish in the top 6 @ 7.00 with Ladbrokes

That will do for now. Back with an update for qualifying on Saturday and the race on Sunday.

-JamesPunt