Emilia-Romagna GP Race Day Preview James Punt
Emilia-Romagna GP Race Day Preview
It was a very frustrating qualifying session yesterday so let’s hope for more luck on Emilia-Romagna GP Race Day. Verstappen drove an uncharacteristically scrappy final qualifying lap which cost him pole position. Bottas couldn’t get his tyres warmed up for his Q3 runs and Tsunoda binned his Alpha Tauri in Q1 without setting a time.
We now have Hamilton on pole position on a circuit where track position is so important. The DRS zone has been extended to try and enable more overtaking this year, but it remains to be seen if this will have the desired effect.
The nature of the track does lend itself to a very good chance of a safety car deployment. We have already had three red flag incidents this weekend as there isn’t a lot of room off the track to recover cars and the track offers up plenty of opportunities to crash. This may be the best opportunity to shake up the order and luck could play a big part in today’s race.
In last year’s race, despite few on track overtakes, nobody finished in their qualifying position. The driver who started in last place last year, Giovinazzi, finished 10th, Kimi Raikkonen made it to 9th place from 18th on grid, while Latifi just missed out on a point, finishing 11th from 19th. The fact that we had five DNF’s and a late spin by Albon which put him last, helped the stragglers at the back pick up a point just by still being in the race.
The threat of rain has receded further, and it now looks unlikely that we will see any wet stuff.
Emilia-Romagna GP Race Day: Hamilton Starts As Fav
Hamilton starts as the 2.20 favourite despite not having the fastest car and having two Red Bulls behind him, on different strategies. Sergio Perez starts on the front row, on the soft compound tyre, with Verstappen third on the medium. The medium compound tyre is the better option strategically but the soft will give Perez more grip off the line and better race pace in the opening laps.
Clearly the start of the race, the opening lap, will be the best chance for drivers to make up places and then try and keep out of trouble and run a good race strategy. Lewis Hamilton will have the unusual situation of flying solo, defending from the quicker Red Bulls, while his wingman languishes in eighth place on the grid. Bottas has the car to make up places, but he doesn’t have the best circuit to do that on. With the two Red Bulls on different strategies they will have more options when it comes to making their one and only pitstop.
Max On The Drift
Max Verstappen is out to 3.00 in the betting with Perez at 6.50. The Mexican appears to be on the worst strategy but with a safety car very likely (a 1.33 chance with the bookies), the best laid plans can be thrashed in an instant and events could play into his hands. However, the team running two different strategies are better placed to take advantage of a mixed up race and Red Bull are favourite with some bookies to be the winning team.
We have backed Verstappen ante post and he is still a live chance. His record in Italy is not good but hopefully he gets a break today.
The rest of the top 10 sees Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc in fourth place, Gasly fifth with the two McLaren’s sixth and seventh. Exactly the same as at the Bahrain GP. In that race we saw a strong race performance from McLaren who got Norris home in fourth place, Leclerc fell back and finished sixth. Gasly and Ricciardo clashed, and both struggled as a result.
Bottas Can Make Places
Bottas starts eighth and is on the medium compound tyre. He should be able to make up some places, but the Mercedes does not have the same kind of performance advantage over the midfielders as it has had in recent years.
Ninth is the Alpine of Esteban Ocon and Stroll is once again tenth in the Aston Martin, and he converted that into tenth in race in Bahrain. They will be under pressure from Sainz in the Ferrari who starts in eleventh place and with a free choice of tyres. He will be looking to pick both off during the pitstops if he can’t make up ground at the start.
George Russell will be hoping to make amends for his mistake here last year, when he crashed the car behind the safety car when heading for a points finish. He starts in an impressive twelfth place with teammate Latifi (11th here last year) starting fourteenth. Williams had hoped that Imola would be a good race for them as the track is not affected by wind as much as many others. Perhaps their best chance of points is to do what Alfa Romeo did last year and just keep out of trouble and hope that cars in front have problems.
Emilia-Romagna GP Race Day: Aston Martin Struggles
Two former World Champions, Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel, were out qualified by there teammates yesterday, Vettel starts thirteenth, Alonso fifteenth. The Aston Martin continues to struggle and we have the embarrassing sight of the team owner demanding that the rules (which Aston Martin voted for) should be changed because they are struggling. Vettel is being shown up by Stroll and another bad race will just up the pressure on him.
Alonso was running well enough in Bahrain before he had to retire, but despite upgrades for the car, the Alpine is someway off the pace and he will need a lot of luck to get any points today.
The two Alfa Romeo’s start sixteenth and seventeenth and they will hope for a similar result to last year when they got a double points finish despite starting at the back. Lightening can strike twice, just not very often.
The two Haas only have the Alpha Tauri of Tsunoda behind them. Mazepin continues to struggle. He is making enemies fast, making mistakes and getting shown up by Schumacher.
Not much value
There doesn’t appear to be any great value in the markets today. It is a hard race to call because of the real threat of a safety car, or indeed safety cars, being deployed.
George Russell does make enough appeal for a small bet to finish in the points. The car is performing much closer to the pace of the midfield proper, and Russell is a class act. He will also know the importance of not making mistakes and hopefully karma is on his side this year.
He was second best to Nicolas Latifi in every session right up to Q2 but the Canadian made a mistake and Russell keeps his record of never being out qualified by a teammate in F1. It would not be a complete shock to see Latifi have a good race as he has shown good pace all weekend, but he did have an off in FP3, isn’t as good a driver as Russell, and he starts two places further back in fourteenth.
However, he does look a good bet to beat the two Alfa Romeo’s. He starts ahead of both in a car that has been going well so far while the Alfa’s do not look as good here as they did in Bahrain, where they knew the track so well after racking up huge testing mileage.
Emilia-Romagna GP Race Day Tip: 1 point Nicolas Latifi to win Group 4 @ 4.00 with Ladbrokes
The Williams was very fast in a straight line and that will make them hard to overtake but may help them attack in the DRS zone.
Emilia-Romagna GP Race Day Tip: 1 point George Russell to finish in the points @ 4.00 with Hills, Skybet
Ladbrokes have returned to offering betting ‘without the big two’ of Red Bull and Mercedes. They have Leclerc as the 1.91 favourite. He starts fourth so just has to hold his position to win the bet, but he failed to do so from the same position in Bahrain. Ferrari have set the car up a little differently to help with race pace, but they looked a little slow on the straights.
McLaren had a difficult Friday, nearly a second off the pace, but they turned things around yesterday with Norris second fastest in FP3 and a small mistake in Q3 meant he lost his final flying lap time for exceeding track limits and dropped from third to seventh on the grid. Clearly the car has good pace and Norris was best of the rest in Bahrain, where he also started seventh.
Ricciardo still isn’t fully at ease with the McLaren and not quite getting as much out of it as Norris. Pierre Gasly starts fifth and he is in with a chance in this market. We have already put a lot of eggs in the Alpha Tauri basket without success so far and for that reason, I will leave him alone here and have a bet on the in-form Lando Norris.
