Newbury Saturday Tips and Preview by Dave Stevos

by | Nov 29, 2019

Newbury Saturday Preview of Live ITV Races

The Skeltons won the first live race of the day at Newbury but it wasn’t with Spiritofthegames. Our selection was in rear from the outset and stayed there. Dashel Drasher unseated Matt Griffiths at the first and we got no run for our money. The World’s End ran a nice race but couldn’t deal with the first two. Debestyman ran a blinder, drifting to 50/1 but just missing out on place money in 6th. It just wasn’t soft enough for him but he will win plenty of races. Dave Stevos is back for more punishment tomorrow. Check out his free Newbury Saturday tips for live ITV races below…

Newbury Saturday Tips: 1.50pm Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

The first live race from Newbury on Ladbrokes Trophy day is a 20.5f handicap hurdle. A big field of 16 will go to post and Coeur Blimey is the one I like here. This fella has bundles of ability and a serious engine, his jumping just sometimes lets him down. However, he didn’t jump at all badly bar one or two sticky ones in the middle part of his last race over timber in the Welsh Champion Hurdle (16f gd/sft).

He finished 4th that day off 133, beaten a fair way, but he was staying on well at the finish. The Gardners decided to give Coeur Blimey a spin over the bigger obstacles last time, perhaps a ploy to make him respect the flights more when he returns to hurdling. He has won here on the flat off 86 (16f sft) and he was 4th behind Kalashnikov in the Betfair Hurdle in 2018 off 132.

This son of Winged Love has had a few runs this season so he should be very fit and given his flat win here, this race has probably been on the radar since. If he can jump with some fluency Coeur Blimey is capable of reaching the frame at the very least off a mark of 131. At odds of 18/1 with 5 places available, he is the each way selection.

NEWBURY SATURDAY TIPS: COEUR BLIMEY E/W @ 18/1 5 PLACES nb

Newbury Saturday : 2.25pm – Handicap Hurdle (Listed)

This Listed 16.5f contest has attracted a field of 11 geldings and mares. It looks a fairly open race and a very trickle puzzle to solve. One that could be potentially overpriced is Beat The Judge for Gary and Josh Moore. This 4yo son of Canford Cliffs has saved his best hurdling form for Kempton. His only win over timber came there (16f gd/sft) and so did his two best placed efforts. The second of those placed efforts came in a Grade 2 in October when he chased home Silver Streak (16f gd).

The horse that was 3rd home that day, Sofia’s Rock, was 5L behind Beat The Judge. He was a good 2nd off 140 next time in a Huntingdon handicap. Gary Moore’s charge races off 140 here, so that would suggest he is capable of being competitive off that rating. Even though his best form has come on flat tracks, he has often finished races as though a stiffer test would suit. Good to soft ground should be fine and at odds of 25/1 Beat The Judge is the each way selection.

NEWBURY SATURDAY TIPS: BEAT THE JUDGE E/W @ 25/1

Newbury Saturday  Tips: 3.00pm – Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

The feature race of the weekend at Newbury is the Grade 3, £250k Ladbrokes Trophy Chase. Some jumping legends have won this race in the past, including Native River, Many Clouds and the mighty Denman. Whether there is anything in this year’s contest that will emulate those three superstars remains to be seen. With a rating of 160 Elegant Escape is the class horse coming into the race, but his jumping can let him down. He would like to see some rain too.

I backed Daklondike for this earlier in the week as the weather looked bad. However, the forecast rain didn’t arrive and that is a negative for his chances. David Pipe fired in a winner here on Friday though and this horse looks laid out for this race. He stayed on very nicely over 24f here on his seasonal comeback and he is a former C&D winner. Daklondike can be a bit of a monkey as he showed when refusing to race in the Eider. However, if he is on a going day he is a serious horse and he loves Newbury. A small e/w interest at 28/1 is the order of the day.  

Another one that could go well at a price is Joe Farrell for Rebecca Curtis and Leighton Aspell. He ran a lovely race over C&D back in March 2019 off 140 and his comeback run was a cracker too. He was only 1L behind Vieux Lion Rouge off 142 and a 2lb rise looks fair. It might be too big an ask for him to win, but at 25/1 with 6 places available, he has to be worth an each way interest.

NEWBURY SATURDAY  TIPS: DAKLONDIKE E/W @ 28/1; JOE FARRELL E/W @ 25/1 (BOTH 6 PLACES)

Newbury Preview: 3.40pm – Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Last up on ITV on Saturday at Newbury is another very competitive handicap chase, this one over 16f. A field of 15 will line up at the start and a serious case could be made for half a dozen. The market may be adjusted if Newcastle goes ahead as Lady Buttons will go there if it survives the frost. Top weight Bun Doran is a horse I really like and he goes very well fresh. His form figures after a break of 150 days or more read 1321.

However, he returns to action off a career high mark of 150 and he will have bigger fish to fry later in the season. One that could outrun his odds of 18/1 is Theo for Richard Newland. The good doctor knows how to win these handicaps and Theo has knocked on the door on his last two starts over 16f/17f. He was less than a length behind Sizing Platinum at Worcester (gd) and then he was beat a length at Kelso (soft). 19.5f on soft proved too far last time and dropping back in trip will suit.

The booking of Sean Bowen catches the eye as he has a very good record when riding for this yard. From 32 rides he has 9 wins and 7 top 4 finishes, a winning strike rate of 28%. Newland has his string in form too with 4 winners and a host of places from his last 20 runners. Odds of 18/1 look generous about Theo and he is the each way NAP of the day.

 

NEWBURY SATURDAY TIPS: THEO E/W @ 18/1 NAP

 

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