Newmarket and Hamilton Sunday Tips Dave Stevos

by | May 1, 2021

Newmarket and Hamilton Sunday Tips

Thank God for Lucky Vega in the Guineas because the rest of Saturday’s tips were awful. I have already posted a preview and selection for the 1000 Guineas, click here to see it. We also have races from two other tracks on Sunday live on ITV, check out Dave Stevos’ Newmarket and Hamilton Saturday tips below…

1.50 Newmarket – Betfair Exchange Handicap (Class 2)

The opening live ITV race from Newmarket on Sunday is a 6 runner, 12f handicap. Mark Johnston won this last season with Baghdad and he fires two bullets this time. Zabeel Champion is the mount of Ben Curtis and he is bidding to win his third race in a row. A former course winner on good ground (10f), he has to defy a career high mark. That is entirely possible, but the bookies haven’t missed him. Sky Defender is Johnston’s other representative and Joe Fanning rides. He has won over this far before but he is arguably best at 10f. He looks handicapped to the hilt too.

If she is ready to rock and roll on her return, Hyanna could go well. Trained by Eve Johnson-Houghton, Georgia Dobie will claim 5lbs off her back. This daughter of Champs Elysees runs off a mark of 99 today, That is admittedly 5lb higher than she was for her last win at Windsor. However, she went very close a couple of times off her revised rating subsequently. She was beat a head at Ascot off 97 on her last start on decent ground at 12f and she then went close at Sandown (10f) and Yarmouth (14f), both off 99.

This mare has gone well fresh in the past and she won her first start last season. Her last Newmarket run wasn’t the best but in her defence, the ground was bottomless. Her two previous runs on the Rowley Course saw her finish 4th, beat 1.5L over 10f and 2nd over 12f, both on good to soft ground. Good to firm suits her a lot better and Georgia Dobie usually gets a very good tune out of this mare. At odds of 18/1, Hyanna is worth chancing e/w for small stakes.

Newmarket and Hamilton Sunday Tips: Hyanna e/w @ 18/1

2.05 Salisbury – City Bowl Handicap (Class 3)

Another rather small field for this class 3, 14f handicap with just seven going to post. Gumball won this race in 2019 and off just 3lb higher he could make another bold bid with Hollie Doyle doing the steering. This likeable 7yo is a classy dual purpose type who loves to get on with things out in front. He was rated as high as 152 over fences and 153 over hurdles and he has won 5 of his 22 starts over jumps. Philip Hobbs’ charge was last sighted finishing 3rd behind Shishkin at Aintree earlier this month. So, he definitely shouldn’t be lacking for fitness.

He is a three time winner on the level two, twice on the all weather at 12f and this race on good to firm a  couple of years ago. Three of his rivals today are coming back from breaks and on their jumps form, Gumball should be able to beat Hasanabad in receipt of 1lb. He is admittedly up against some unexposed 4yos so it is hard to be overly confident. But to be fair to Gumball, he has only had a handful of flat runs too and there could be plenty more to come from him in this sphere. With trip, track and ground to suit, Gumball is the each way pick at 10/1.

salisbury Sunday Tip: Gumball e/w @ 10/1 NB

2.25 Newmarket – Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed)

The Listed Pretty Polly Stakes is a 10f trial for the Oaks later in the season. Talent and Taghrooda took this race before going on to land the big one in 2013 and 2104 respectively. Will there be any fillies good enough to go on and complete the double this season? Well, some of them look a tad exposed already on 2yo form, although massive improvement is always a possibility from 2yo to 3yo. A’Shaari is probably the most intriguing runner for Buick, Appleby and Godolphin. By Dubawi and out of a two time G1 winning dam, this filly is bred for the job.

Given that her mother was best on firm ground, it was encouraging that she won so well on soft on her debut on the July course last August. In hindsight, it wasn’t the best of maidens but she could do no more than beat what was in front of her. There is no doubt she did it impressively. This looks the right race for her given her pedigree and it will be fascinating to see how she fares.

Sea Karats was sent off at short odds for her debut 2 weeks ago at Newbury (10f gd). However, she could only finish 3rd. While punters may not have been best pleased with the result, her trainer William Haggas was likely delighted with the performance. She finished best of all having met trouble in running and she displayed lots of potential. Tom Marquand’s mount is bred to get this trip at the very least and she is another filly that could have a big year ahead of her.

Lively Outsider

However, the bookies have not taken any chances with those two fillies. The one that looks most overpriced to me in this field is The Flying Ginger. Trained by Roger Fell, this daughter of Showcasing is rated just 82 on her 2yo form. She disappointed in Listed company after her debut win at Chester. Her next run in an Ayr handicap was poor too. All those runs came over 6f but she was much better at this track when stepped up to 7f on good ground her next outing.

She finished just 1.5L behind Mystery Angel (14/1 for this race) and that filly got a dream run up the rail. Roger Fell’s filly was conceding 4lb to her too so in hindsight, it was no surprise to see her cash in off 3lb higher next time at York (8f sft) given that Mystery Angel is now rated 95. I think that filly is best on softer ground than she gets today and The Flying Ginger could be capable of turning that form around on good to firm.

Heavy ground was no good for her when she flopped in a Listed race her on her final outing last season. Back on better ground, she could nick some black type. At odds of 50/1, a small each way interest is advised.  

Newmarket and Hamilton Sunday Tips: The Flying Ginger e/w @ 50/1

2.40 Hamilton – Handicap (Class 3)

We head up North for the next live ITV race and it is a 13f handicap at Hamilton. Nicholas T was a horse that broke my heart last season. I must have backed him at least three or four times and when I wasn’t on, he dotted up at Newcastle in November. The handicapper has taken a dim view of that facile win and he was hiked back up to a mark of 92. The 9yo son of Rail Link scored on his first run last season but in previous years he has taken a run or two to hit top form. I’ll probably regret it, but I am going to leave him alone today.

Instead, I will be taking a chance on The Navigator. This hardy son of Mastercraftsman was on the go a long time before taking a well earned break in November. A useful sort over hurdles and on the level, his last flat win came off a mark of 76 at Catterick last August on good ground. He was then a decent 2nd, beat 4L, over the same C&D off 80. He is in off the same mark today.

Dianne Sayer’s charge has run over this course and distance before, in July 2020, and he arguably should have won. He was all dressed up with nowhere to go between the 3f and 1f pole but when he did eventually find daylight, he finished very well for 3rd. The Navigator looked as enthusiastic as ever on his two hurdle runs last month. With those efforts under his belt, he should outrun his odds of 16/1.

Newmarket and Hamilton Sunday Tips: The Navigator e/w @ 16/1 NAP

3.00 Newmarket – Dahlia Stakes (Group 2)

This 9f Group 2 for fillies and mares has attracted a field of 8 runners. We were on Lady Bowthorpe when she won at Ascot last season and she could go well again today. This 5yo daughter of Nathaniel is rated 108, which is the second highest rating in the field. She won on her seasonal reappearance in 2020 and I am hoping that William Jarvis has her ready to go today. Lady Bowthorpe has yet to race beyond a mile but the extra furlong today shouldn’t pose any problems.

The day she won her Group 3 at Ascot she certainly wasn’t stopping at the finish (8f gd). Her dam is a half-sister to 10F Group 2 winner Tullius and her sire Nathaniel is a big stamina influence. Lady Bowthorpe shaped as though in need of further when staying on late at Sandown on her penultimate start and she was far from disgraced in a heavy ground Group 1 at this track on her final run of the year. This looks a great starting point for her and at odds of 11/2, I will be backing her to win.

 

Newmarket and Hamilton Sunday Tips: Lady Bowthorpe win @ 11/2

 

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