Saturday Evening Baltic Sea Darts Open Tips – JP
Saturday Evening Baltic Sea Darts Open Tips
Another day, another two winners from four tips for James Punt’s loyal disciples. In this afternoon’s session he found Van Den Bergh -2.5 at 1.90 and under 8.5 legs at 2.15 in the Heta v Brooks match. We are now 7/11 so far this weekend and we go again this evening. Check out James’ Saturday Evening Baltic Sea Darts Open tips below.
Nathan Aspinall vs. Steve Beaton
Not many people would have been expecting Steve Beaton to hit the highest average of the first round, but his 106 when beating Adrian Lewis 6-2, was just that. Lewis averaged 99, which was the second highest of the first round which underlines what a good performance it was. It was not completely out of the blue as Beaton had hit three big averages in his previous four matches (96.9, 99.2 and 97.6).
Their H2H record is 6-3 for The Asp but Steve has won their last two, including a 6-4 win on the Euro Tour last October. Aspinall has been struggling for wins recently, losing six of his last ten matches. He has played some great stuff at times, including a 108 average, but he is blowing hot and cold with half of his last ten matches seeing sub 92 averages and his win rate in 2023 is just 50%.
Aspinall is the 1.44 favourite, but the value has to be with Beaton. He has hit some good form, while with Aspinall, you cannot be sure what you are going to get and it is impossible to back a player with a 50% win rate at odds of 1.44.
Saturday Evening Baltic Sea Darts Tip: 1 point Steve Beaton to win @ 3.20 with Ladbrokes
Jonny Clayton vs. Ted Evetts
Evetts 6-3 win over Jeroen Mioch was nothing to write home about, but at least it ended a run of four straight losses for Super Ted. His scoring has been poor of late, and he is up against it here.
Their H2H record is 3-2 to Clayton and the Welshman has won their last three, and the last two 6-0 and 6-2. The Ferret has been hitting some very big numbers lately and is averaging 97.3 for the year. He just didn’t fire on Thursday night in the premier league but five ton plus averages in his last ten matches is good shooting.
This should be a routine win for Clayton, and he starts as the 1.25 favourite. I’ll take him on the handicap and hope he ups his game from Thursday.
Saturday Evening Baltic Sea Darts Tip: 1 point Clayton to win -2.5 legs @ 1.75 with Fitzdares
Gerwyn Price vs. Graham Usher
Graham Usher caught Ryan Joyce on a bad day as he managed to average just 81.4. I suspect Gerwyn Price will be a bit better than that. Usher won his tour card in January and he has won six of his thirteen matches. Nearly half have gone to a deciding leg. He is averaging 89 so far with a best of 94.2.
Price has won seven of his last ten and is averaging 96.9 in 2023. He is the 1.15 favourite but there will be better betting opportunities.
Saturday Evening Baltic Sea Darts Tip: No Bet
Luke Humphries vs. Daryl Gurney
Superchin put in another strong performance to beat his nemesis, Gabriel Clemens, 6-5 in a top class match. He had to overcome a player averaging 98, who had a great H2H record against him and a hostile crowd. It was a very stern test and he pulled it off.
Clemens’ set up shots were top class and he put Gurney under pressure all the way. Gurney is definitely heading in the right direction. He looks much more focused and if he gets his swagger back, he will be going up the rankings again. Confidence is everything at this level and he is winning a lot of matches in 2023, eight of his last ten and his win rate in 2023 is 79%.
Gurney Edges H2H
Their H2H record is 4-2 to Gurney and he has won their two previous European Tour matches, including their last one in 2022. Humphries has won seven of his last ten matches, hitting four ton plus averages, but had a couple of sub 90s as well.
This is a hard one to call. Humphries is a top player who plays at a high level, but Gurney was an elite player and is on the comeback trail. If he plays well, he can beat the top players and he is starting to find his best form and his confidence is starting to flow.
Humphries is the 1.65 favourite and Gurney 2.40. There is some value in Daryl Gurney’s odds but just like with last night, I’ll go for a close match.
Saturday Evening Baltic Sea Darts Tip: 1 point over 9.5 legs @ 2.00 with Fitzdares
Michael Smith vs. Niko Springer
Springer averaged 97.5 in his 6-4 win over Jermaine Wattimena in the first round. His win rate in 2023 is 91%, so he lacks for nothing when it comes to confidence. Of course, he isn’t playing against World Champions in the German Super League or development tour, but he is used to winning.
This time last year he beat Wattimena in the first round and also won his second-round match against Brendan Dolan, but it is the World Champion this time around.
Double Trouble
Smith has won eight of his last ten matches but lost 1-6 to Gerwyn Price in Thursday’s PL semi-final. He had serious double trouble, the second match in a row where he was missing on the outer ring. He got away with it against Peter Wright but checkout rates of 26% and 16% are a cause for concern.
This is a potential banana skin for Smith if he has more problems with the doubles. Springer has enough about him to cause a shock, and there are worse 5.50 shots around.
Springer hit five 180s yesterday and when he gets going, he can be very strong on the maximums. Michael Smith is second only to Dirk van Duijvenbode in terms of 180s per leg and Springer has moved into the top 30 with 0.26 per leg. So long as it isn’t a very brief match, we should see plenty of maximums.
Saturday Evening Baltic Sea Darts Tip: 1 point over 5.5 180’s @ 2.00 with Fitzdares
Peter Wright vs. James Wade
Peter Wright has lost seven of his last ten matches and one of them was a 3-6 loss to James Wade. Wright’s scoring has generally been good, but it was only a 91 average against Wade, as it was when losing to Michael Smith on Thursday. His confidence must be taking a big hit and he does not want to develop a losing habit. His 2023 win rate is just 53% and for an elite player, that is something of a crisis.
Wade beat Barney 6-3 last night. He was 50% on the doubles and that was the difference between the two. He has won six of his last ten matches and while he has not been a model of consistency there have been some very good performances.
Their H2H record is 24-24 with one draw.
Wade is the call. Wright might still have the better scoring power, but his win rate means he has to be opposed.
Saturday Evening Baltic Sea Darts Tip: 1 point James Wade to win @ 2.75 with Ladbrokes
Michael van Gerwen vs. Stephen Bunting
MVG has won six of his last ten matches, but he doesn’t look in top form. He won the PL Night 4 but it was a messy final vs. Price as he missed 15 doubles. He just doesn’t look in great form.
Bunting beat Willy O’Connor 6-4 last night and averaged 97.2. He too has won six of his last ten matches.
The H2H stats show MVG 19-2 ahead and he has won their last ten in a row. I can’t see Bunting changing that unless MVG has a meltdown.
Van Gerwen is the 1.36 favourite with Bunting 3.50. They have played eleven best of 11 leg matches and MVG has won five of them 6-1.
Saturday Evening Baltic Sea Darts Tip: 0.5 point MVG to win 6-1 @ 8.50 with Fitzdares
Martin Schumacher vs. Lukas Wenig
An all-German affair to end the night. Wenig got a free pass from Ryan Miekle last night with the Englishman averaging just 80 and losing 1-6 to the German. Lukas has won seven of his last ten matches but at a lower level than this.
Schindler has only played eight matches in 2023, winning four. He also has played Ryan Miekle and also beat him 6-1.
The H2H stats show a 2-1 lead for Schindler and he won both their best of 11 leg matches, 6-2 and 6-3, both in 2021. He is by far the more experienced player, he is the heavier scorer and the deserved 1.33 favourite.
